DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in central Canada, one in the West, and another in Alaska. A weak ridge in the Southeast is popping up in the void of troughs. The western trough will slide eastward through the weekend with a big storm and be replaced by the Alaska trough in the West. That second trough will send a couple of pieces of energy through the middle of the country in the middle of next week, but a piece will stay behind in the Southwest. The Southeast ridge will try to firm up next week and oppose the troughs a bit.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another ridge will try to form off the West Coast by late next week and change the pattern a bit. We may see more of an eastern trough developing by mid-April.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below normal in the West and North and above normal in the South and East. Another system will move through the country next week. Models are still trying to work out that system, but it should bring widespread precipitation and a drop in temperatures to many areas.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...91 AT PORT CHARLOTTE, FL

LOW WED...20 BELOW ZERO AT OAKES, ND

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT WEDNESDAY...NAPA, CA 1.55 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in central Canada, one in the West, and another in Alaska. A weak ridge in the Southeast is popping up in the void of troughs. The western trough will slide eastward through the weekend with a big storm and be replaced by the Alaska trough in the West. That second trough will send a couple of pieces of energy through the middle of the country in the middle of next week, but a piece will stay behind in the Southwest. The Southeast ridge will try to firm up next week and oppose the troughs a bit. Meanwhile, another ridge will try to form off the West Coast by late next week and change the pattern a bit.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures Tuesday will be below normal in the West and North and above normal in the South and East. Another system will move through the country next week. Models are still trying to work out that system, but it should bring widespread precipitation and a drop in temperatures to many areas.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Some occasional snow continues Thursday, but a heavier band will form in South Dakota on Friday that could add to the snowpack. Cold temperatures will limit melting for yet another week and the risk of significant flooding is increasing for when temperatures turn higher, perhaps abruptly.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A larger storm builds across the region Thursday into Friday. Northern and eastern areas again look to have the best chance for precipitation while strong winds develop elsewhere, sapping soil moisture. The outlook for the southwestern Plains remains grim as this area gets missed by yet another large storm. A similar large storm is expected next week that should bring much of the same conditions as the storm this week.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Another strong storm will move through Thursday into Saturday with widespread precipitation, severe storms, strong winds, and a band of snow across the north as we turn the calendar to April. Another similar storm system is forecast for next week. The wetter conditions across a lot of the region are causing a slow start to fieldwork.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): The region will see more showers come through with a stronger system Thursday night and Friday. Another storm system is forecast to do the same for next week. The frequent precipitation is keeping fields wet and fieldwork slow.

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BRAZIL (CORN): Wet season showers have become isolated through central Brazil and are forecast to remain that way through April, leaving some concern for enough available soil moisture for developing safrinha corn. Systems moving through Argentina will bring showers into southern Brazil, however, which may enhance showers there at times.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Argentina continues to be active with several more fronts moving through with more showers going into April. Heavy rain last week and this week is too late to turn around damaged corn and soybeans.

Temperatures look to waffle a bit more as it starts to come to fall harvest time.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): An active weather pattern continues to bring widespread showers through most of the continent through the weekend. Spain and Italy will miss out on more of the precipitation, which it needs as it has been much drier over the last few months. After a warm start to spring in March, temperatures are trending below normal as we move into April, which may cause some cooler morning temperatures and localized frosts, along with slower development of winter grains.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Periods of showers will move through the region through next week, but also come with cooler temperatures for Ukraine, which may slow development of winter grains. Overall though, growing conditions are mostly favorable.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/OILSEEDS): Precipitation continues to be limited in the main winter wheat and oilseed areas on the North China Plain as crops are breaking dormancy. Shower chances are focused more to the south through the weekend. A system will come through early next week with more widespread and heavier showers, but more will be needed.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday, below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, below normal west and above normal east Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Scattered showers south Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

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John Baranick