DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Central U.S. and another in the Gulf of Alaska. Small and transient ridges are off to the east of both troughs. The Gulf of Alaska trough will send a couple pieces of energy eastward into next week, but mainly stay in the Gulf of Alaska until moving east through the U.S. mid-late next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move through the country next weekend. This will maintain troughing features across the U.S. for the next two weeks and an overall colder pattern for most areas.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be below normal in the West and near to above normal in the East. A system will bring widespread precipitation to the country and cooler temperatures for the East mid-late week, followed by another over the weekend into the following week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...99 AT FALCON LAKE, TX

LOW THU...27 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...OKLAHOMA CITY, OK 1.31 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Central U.S. and another in the Gulf of Alaska. Small and transient ridges are off to the east of both troughs. The Gulf of Alaska trough will send a couple pieces of energy eastward into next week, but mainly stay in the Gulf of Alaska until moving east through the U.S. mid- to late- next week.

Another trough will follow behind it next weekend. This will mean troughing features across the U.S. for the next two weeks and an overall colder pattern.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be below normal in the West and near to above normal in the East. A system will bring widespread precipitation to the country and cooler temperatures for the East mid- to late-week, followed by another over the weekend into the following week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Temperatures are falling well below normal again to close out the week with higher inputs than normal for livestock. Another storm system is slated to move through in the middle of next week with more scattered showers, followed by another round of colder air.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A system brought scattered showers, areas of breezy winds, and colder temperatures on Thursday. The cold will persist through the weekend and may be damaging to more developed wheat in the far south. Temperatures will rise ahead of the next system later next week, only to fall after it passes through. Precipitation continues to miss the deepest drought areas in the southwest.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system continues to bring widespread precipitation to the eastern half of the region Friday, along with some breezy winds.

Below-normal temperatures are following the system. Though below freezing, impacts to winter wheat are expected to be minimal. Temperatures will rise briefly ahead of a system next week but will fall again after it passes through.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Temperatures are falling again behind a system that brought scattered showers on Thursday.

Temperatures will rise next week but fall again after another storm system moves through later next week. Repeated wet weather has kept water levels high on the Lower Mississippi River but limited early fieldwork.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue for much of Brazil's growing regions through the weekend but will continue in the middle of the country next week as well. Drier conditions next week in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul will help these areas increase their safrinha corn planting, but much of the crop is well behind schedule. A lot of that crop will be exposed to the dry season in about a month's time and also potential frosts in June. Corn in the ground now is benefiting from good soil moisture.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers this week, while heavy in some key areas, are too late to have much of an impact to corn and soybeans in various late stages of development. Rainfall next week could be more significant for central areas, too. Heat that has been around for the first half of March continues through the weekend before more seasonable temperatures move in behind a cold front next week. The combination of heat and relative dryness continues to damage both crops.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Precipitation over the last week or so has improved soil moisture in some of the driest areas in France and Italy as winter crops are emerging out of dormancy. Another couple of systems will bring showers through this weekend and next week as well. The region's winter grains remain vulnerable to a blast of cold air due to limited snow cover, but none is forecast and time is running out in which that may occur. Overall prospects are favorable for winter grains and oilseeds. Some early fieldwork may be done for summer crops as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Weather conditions over the winter have been favorable. Outside of some spotty areas, the winter wheat crop is in good shape outside of being affected by the war. Showers continue into the weekend but it will dry out a bit next week. Warmer temperatures will help the crop to continue out of dormancy and start up development.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/OILSEEDS): Precipitation has been limited over the winter, with most areas in central and southern China drier than normal as winter crops break dormancy. A front will bring scattered showers recently, but chances for meaningful rainfall are low for the next couple of weeks. The region needs more moisture for the crop that is coming out of dormancy.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal northwest and near to above normal southeast.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers south Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

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