Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) --- Another storm with cold temperatures moving into the Plains and a break in the rain for key parts of Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE PRECIPITATION, COLD FOR MIDWEST

A system will bring widespread precipitation to the Midwest Thursday and Friday, including a band of heavier snow in the northwest and some breezy winds behind the system as well. Below-normal temperatures will follow the system and, outside of a couple of warmer days ahead of a system next week, will trend downward again for the rest of the month.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TURNING COLD AFTER STORM

A system will continue to move through the Central and Southern Plains Thursday, bringing scattered showers, areas of breezy winds, and colder temperatures. The cold may be damaging to more developed wheat in the far south. Below-normal temperatures are likely to stick around through next week as well, though may see a warm day ahead of the next system later next week. Precipitation will be lighter in the southwestern Plains, though next week's system does provide a chance at some thunderstorms.

NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER

A system continues in the Northern Plains Thursday with some scattered snow, mostly for eastern South Dakota. Temperatures are falling well below normal again to close out the week with higher inputs than normal for livestock. Another storm system is slated to move through in the middle of next week with more scattered showers, followed by another round of colder air.

FIELDWORK SLOW FOR WET DELTA

After a couple of warmer days in the Delta, temperatures fall again behind a system that brings through scattered showers for Thursday into Friday. A similar situation will occur next week with another strong storm system moving through later next week. Repeated wet weather has kept water levels high on the Lower Mississippi River but is limiting early fieldwork.

RAIN DIMINISHING IN SOUTHERN, EASTERN BRAZIL

Scattered showers continue for much of Brazil's growing regions through the weekend but will continue in the middle of the country next week as well. Drier conditions next week in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul will help these areas increase their safrinha corn planting, but much of the crop is well behind schedule. A lot of that crop will be exposed to the dry season in about a month's time and also potential frosts in June. Corn in the ground now is benefiting from good soil moisture.

HEAT AND LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

In Argentina, isolated showers this week, while heavy in some key areas, are too late to have much of an impact to corn and soybeans in various late stages of development. Rainfall next week could be more significant for central areas, too. Heat that has been around for the first half of March continues into next week as well. The combination of heat and relative dryness continues to damage both crops.

IMPROVED WEATHER IN EUROPE

Precipitation over the last week or so has improved soil moisture in some of the driest areas in France and Italy as winter crops are emerging out of dormancy. Another couple of systems will bring showers through this weekend and next week as well. The region's winter grains remain vulnerable to a blast of cold air due to limited snow cover, but none is forecast and time is running out in which that may occur. Overall prospects are favorable for winter grains and oilseeds. Some early fieldwork may be done for summer crops as well.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS FOR WAR-TORN BLACK SEA

Weather conditions in the Black Sea region over the winter have been favorable outside of some spotty areas. The winter wheat crop is in good shape, outside of being affected by the war. Showers continue through the end of this week, but it will dry out a bit next week. Warmer temperatures will help the crop continue out of dormancy and start up development.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.