DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Southeast and another across northern Canada that will keep a trough in western North America into next week. The Southeastern ridge is weakening though, allowing pieces of the trough to move eastward through next week. A ridge will try to develop across the Rockies next week but will find it difficult because of a continued active pattern.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The pattern will roughly stay the same as the Pacific trough sends pieces of energy through the U.S.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below normal across a lot of the country outside of the South-Central U.S., which should stay warmer. That should generally continue through next week as well. A system will likely move through later next week, reinforcing the cooler pattern across the country and bringing in another round of widespread precipitation.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...96 AT ZAPATA, TX

LOW WED...28 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT WEDNESDAY...WICHITA FALLS, TX 0.90 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the Southeast and another across northern Canada that will keep a trough in western North America into next week. The Southeastern ridge is weakening though, allowing pieces of the trough to move eastward through next week. A ridge will try to develop across the Rockies next week, but will find it difficult because of a continued active pattern.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below normal across a lot of the country outside of the South-Central, which should stay warmer. That should generally continue through next week as well. A system will likely move through later next week, reinforcing the cooler pattern across the country and bringing in another round of widespread precipitation.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Waves of snow will continue across the region through the weekend, adding up to some hefty amounts for a lot of the region over the course of this week. Colder air will also be in place for a while, with higher inputs than normal required for livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers continue Thursday.

Temperatures will waffle around over the next 10 days, but mainly be cooler than normal. Another system will move through over the weekend with some showers, but precipitation continues to be limited for southwestern areas where drought remains in control.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Waves of precipitation continue through Monday with some heavier amounts expected, including snow across the north. Temperatures will waffle around over the next 10 days, but trend colder thereafter.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Water levels on the Mississippi River remain high for the foreseeable future due to a very active weather pattern across the watershed for at least the next week. Some areas of minor flooding are forecast instead. The heavy precipitation has left the region wet and more difficult to do some early fieldwork.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue for much of Brazil's growing regions for the next week outside of Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul, where showers will be more limited. Despite recent rains, many areas have made significant progress with regard to soybean harvest and corn planting. However, some areas are behind, somewhat significantly, and will expose more of the corn crop to the dry season which is forecast start up in April and frosts that may occur in June. Corn already in the ground will benefit from good soil moisture.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions continue to be a concern for immature corn and soybeans moving forward. Any showers will be limited for the next week, though isolated showers may move through at times. Southern areas stand the best chance at continued precipitation going into next week, but for most areas, the rain is too late to have much of an impact. Showers will spread through more of the country later next week. Heat that developed last week continues through next week with daytime highs near 100 degrees Fahrenheit when the rains do not occur. The heat and dryness are keeping stresses high for both crops in various stages of growth.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Widespread showers continue into early next week, including over the driest areas in France and Italy as winter crops are emerging out of dormancy. The region's winter grains remain vulnerable to a blast of cold air due to limited snow cover, but none is forecast.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Weather conditions over the winter have been favorable and outside of some spotty areas, the winter wheat crop is in good shape outside of being affected by the war. Periods of showers will move through over the weekend to continue the favorable outlook.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): A long-duration heatwave will develop later this week across most of India and continue through a good portion of the middle of March. As long as precipitation does not occur, daytime highs will exceed 100F for a couple of weeks. Isolated showers will develop at times but be limited.

The heat and limited showers may be very stressful for filling winter wheat.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/OILSEEDS): Precipitation has been limited over the winter, with most areas in central and southern China drier than normal as crops start to break dormancy. A front will move through this weekend with some scattered showers but it will get drier behind that front next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Sunday, below normal Monday.

East: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast through Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

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