DTN Ag Weather Brief

Teresa Deutchman
Meteorologist

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a broad ridge across eastern Canada and the eastern U.S. and a trough extending through western Canada into much of the western U.S. Another trough extends into the south-central U.S. Both troughs will produce storm systems across the U.S. this week as they move eastward. By later this week, another trough will build across central Canada.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

For the outlook period, the trough across central Canada will try to dip south into the north-central and western U.S. A ridge will attempt to build back into the Southeast .

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal across the West and Southeast with above normal temperatures in the North.

Warmer temperatures will quickly build across the South over the weekend.

Another push of cold air will drop through Canada and into the North-Central U.S. early next week, especially across the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains. Temperatures may be well below normal. A system forming along the front around the middle of next week should cause widespread precipitation across the Central and Eastern U.S.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...82 AT FALCON LAKE, TX

LOW MON...32 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT MONDAY...NORFOLK, VA 0.97 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a broad ridge across eastern Canada and the eastern U.S. and a trough extending through western Canada into much of the western U.S. Another trough extends into the south-central U.S. Both troughs will produce storm systems across the U.S. this week as they move eastward. By later this week, another trough will build across central Canada and try to dive south into the western and north-central areas of the U.S. early next week.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal across the West and Southeast with above normal temperatures in the North.

Warmer temperatures will quickly build across the South over the weekend.

Another push of cold air will drop through Canada and into the North-Central U.S. early next week, especially across the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains. Temperatures may be well below normal. A system forming along the front around the middle of next week should cause widespread precipitation across the Central and Eastern U.S.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Cooler temperatures will breeze through the region this week with some scattered snow showers and strong wind gusts, but the cold will be brief. A shot of arctic air will move through next week, increasing stress and feed requirements for livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A system will produce widespread showers and some thunderstorms Tuesday with a second system moving through Wednesday into Thursday. The second storm should produce a stripe of moderate to heavy snow across Colorado, Kansas, and southeast Nebraska. Precipitation this week will help to at least keep drought from getting worse, but much more will be needed. A shot of much colder air may move through much of the region next week, which could hit exposed winter wheat areas and open feedlots with a brief hit of arctic cold.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Two systems will move through this week. The first will be mostly rain while the second will bring a band of moderate to heavy snow for Iowa and Wisconsin. A brief shot of colder air will follow but temperatures will rise again over the weekend and into next week. A more significant cold shot will move into northwest areas around the middle of next week and could be significantly colder than normal, but eastern areas should escape the harsh cold.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): Water levels on the river got a little bit of a boost from a storm system that moved through last week. Two more systems this week should help out as well. An active pattern across the Midwest for the rest of the month should keep water levels from falling into dangerous territory.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue for central and northern areas, where breaks in the heavy showers are few and far between. Soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting remain behind schedule. If the delays are too great this week and next week, as they are forecast to be, safrinha corn will be more exposed to the dry season in a couple of months, which may include pollination. Southern areas continue to have issues with pronounced dryness.

Some better rain will move through with a couple of fronts this week before dry conditions are likely to resume again.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A second front will lift through the area midweek with cooler temperatures, but forecasts have trended down with precipitation coverage and intensity on the second front, and forecasts remain dry for the following week, a bad situation for corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system should bring some widespread showers through northern and eastern areas late week and weekend but southern and western areas remain drier, where rainfall is more in need. The region's winter grains remain vulnerable to a blast of cold air due to limited snow cover.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday.

East: Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated lake-effect snow Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday, mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, variable Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers late. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday, isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Monday, variable Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday, north Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Teresa Deutchman can be reached at Teresa.Deutchman@dtn.com

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