Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmth in the U.S., a stretch of dryness in Argentina, and more heavy rain for central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MIDWEST WARMING UP DESPITE PRECIPITATION

Cold temperatures in the Midwest were quickly replaced by warm air this past weekend. Though a front and system will pass through this week with scattered showers, temperatures behind this system will still be mild for this time of year and will continue into next week.

RAIN MISSING WHEAT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will move across the Central and Southern Plains on Monday with some limited showers. A low-pressure center will form along the front across the southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday where showers will be more significant, away from the primary wheat areas. Some cooler air will move in behind this system to close out the week, but nothing significantly cold that would produce too much stress for livestock. Warmer air will quickly replace the cold again this weekend.

NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES STAYING WARM

Above-normal temperatures returned to the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies over the weekend and should stay in the region over the next week or so, reducing stress and feed requirements for livestock. Temperatures will be on a cooling trend again next week.

WATER LEVELS FALLING FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI

Though area rivers are full due to recent rainfall, a lack of precipitation farther north will send Mississippi River water levels down through this week and are forecast to continue next week as well. Some precipitation will be added this week but is not forecast to have a significant enough effect to stop the drop in water levels.

HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers have returned to central and northern Brazil, where breaks in the heavy showers have closed for the week. Soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting remain behind schedule. If the delays are too great this week and continue through next week as well, corn may have to deal with a shortened wet season and runs the risk of running into its pollination stages as the wet season rains shut down -- unfavorable weather conditions for corn production. Southern areas continue to have issues with pronounced dryness, which continues this week as well.

HEAT AND DRYNESS FOR ARGENTINA THIS WEEK

Argentina is in the midst of a dry stretch that lasts this week before showers move through again this weekend with a cold front. Some spotty showers may occur in a couple of spots this week, though rising temperatures will negate any precipitation that falls until the weekend. The showers that come with the front are unlikely to have a significantly positive impact on soil moisture, though another front that follows it next week could be more substantial. Crops have had a boost in conditions the last couple of weeks, but the heat and dryness this week should have negative effects again.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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