DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Southeast, an arm of the polar vortex in eastern Canada, a ridge in the West and Central, and a complex of troughs in the Pacific. The pattern will be a little more progressive for the next couple of weeks. The western ridge will drift east through the U.S. the next few days, shoving the polar vortex east into the North Atlantic this weekend. The Pacific trough will send a piece of energy through North America this weekend before pushing itself into the U.S. next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

For the outlook period, we will see another trough moving through the U.S. late next week and a deeper trough will settle into the West next weekend.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be above-normal for most of the country, but below normal in the Southwest. This pattern is likely to continue for next week with some cooler temperatures building in the West and possibly leaking into the Plains next weekend. A system will develop over the Southern Plains or Ozarks in the middle of next week, spreading showers northeast through the end of the week. A smaller system may develop behind it for next weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...90 AT IMMOKALEE FL

LOW THU...24 BELOW ZERO AT ESTCOURT STATION, ME

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT THURSDAY...JACKSON, MS 1.51 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Southeast, an arm of the polar vortex in eastern Canada, a ridge in the West and Central, and a complex of troughs in the Pacific. The pattern will be a little more progressive for the next couple of weeks. The western ridge will drift east through the U.S. the next few days, shoving the polar vortex east into the North Atlantic this weekend. The Pacific trough will send a piece of energy through North America this weekend before pushing itself into the U.S. next week. We will see another trough moving into the U.S. late next week and a deeper trough will settle into the West next weekend.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be above normal for most of the country, but below normal in the Southwest. This pattern is likely to continue for next week with some cooler temperatures building in the West and possibly leaking into the Plains next weekend. A system will develop over the Southern Plains or Ozarks in the middle of next week, spreading showers northeast through the end of the week. A smaller system may develop behind it for next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Though cold in eastern areas Friday, warmer air is quickly moving into the western part of the region. Above normal temperatures forecast for the following week will reduce stress on livestock. Temperatures will be on a cooling trend again next weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Temperatures will continue to rise going into the weekend. Drought areas in Oklahoma and Texas have seen some decent precipitation this week, but not enough to turn the drought around in a meaningful way. A front will move into the region early next week with some showers, but a system developing across the southeast around midweek should produce more widespread precipitation. Drought areas again look to be mostly missed, but could pick up a bit of precipitation.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Cold temperatures and lake-effect snow Friday will quickly be replaced by warm air this weekend. A front and then a developing system along it will move through early-mid next week with scattered showers, but temperatures behind the system will continue to be mild.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): Recent precipitation has been able to keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River from falling into dangerously low territory. While the Lower portion of the valley has seen multiple rounds of precipitation this week, drier and colder conditions farther north will limit water movement and we should see a decline in levels moving forward. A system next week may provide some beneficial precipitation, but the trend of lower water levels is likely to continue anyway.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central and northern areas have had some breaks in the precipitation this week to complete some soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais, but rains will become heavier again over the weekend. A cold front is moving through southern areas, but will dry out over the weekend from Parana to Rio Grande do Sul. Dryness continues to be a concern, though breaks will allow for fieldwork in Parana.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The country will go through a dry stretch for about the next 10 days where there will be little to no precipitation for the vast majority of the region. Temperatures will also be on the increase next week.

The heat and dryness may undo the beneficial effects from recent rainfall, that have perked up later-planted corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The eastern half of the continent should see showers through the weekend. While a small disturbance will bring showers to Spain next week, drier weather is expected for most areas along with below-normal temperatures. Overall, winter wheat is in a favorable situation, though France could use more rain and the crop is vulnerable to a blast of cold air with somewhat limited snow cover. The colder temperatures next week is not expected to be sufficient to produce widespread winterkill.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near-to-below normal.

East: Lake-effect snow. Temperatures near-to-below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday, south Tuesday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

East: Lake-effect snow Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6-to-10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6-to-10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday-Friday, north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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