DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the southern Rockies, an arm of the polar vortex in central Canada, a ridge in the Southeast, and another on the West Coast. Yet another trough is developing in the Eastern Pacific. The pattern will be a little more progressive for the next couple of weeks. The western ridge will drift east through the U.S. the next few days, shoving the polar vortex east through Canada and eventually into the North Atlantic this weekend. The same goes for the southern trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

For the outlook period, the Pacific trough will send a piece of energy through North America this weekend before pushing itself into the U.S. next
week. We will see another trough moving into the U.S. late next week and a deeper trough will settle into the West next weekend.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be above-normal for most of the country, but a little below normal in the Southwest. This pattern is likely to continue for next week with some cooler temperatures building in the West next weekend. A system will move out of the West and into the Plains early next week with showers building as the system moves eastward.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...90 AT IMMOKALEE FL

LOW WED...34 BELOW ZERO AT ESTCOURT STATION, ME

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT WEDNESDAY...AUSTIN, TX 1.11 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the southern Rockies, an arm of the polar vortex in central Canada, a ridge in the Southeast, and another on the West Coast. Yet another trough is developing in the Eastern Pacific. The pattern will be a little more progressive for the next couple of weeks. The western ridge will drift east through the U.S. the next few days, shoving the polar vortex east through Canada and eventually into the North Atlantic this weekend. The same goes for the southern trough. The Pacific trough will send a piece of energy through North America this weekend before pushing itself into the U.S. next week. We will see another trough moving into the U.S. late next week and a deeper trough will settle into the West next weekend.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be above-normal for most of the country, but a little below normal in the Southwest. This pattern is likely to continue for next week with some cooler temperatures building in the West next weekend. A system will move out of the West and into the Plains early next week with showers building as the system moves eastward.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): One last blast of cold air moving into the region Thursday will quickly be replaced by some warmer air starting Friday. Above normal temperatures forecast for the following week will reduce stress on livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Temperatures will continue to rise going into the weekend. Southern areas have seen multiple rounds of mixed precipitation this week, with showers finally ending on Thursday. Drought areas in Oklahoma and Texas have seen some precipitation, but not enough to turn the drought around in a meaningful way.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): One last blast of cold air will move through the region Thursday and Friday, with lake-effect snow developing as the cold moves through. The cold will be brief though as warmer air will build back into the region over the weekend. Another system will move through early to mid-next week, but temperatures behind the system will continue to be mild.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): Recent precipitation has been able to keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River from falling into dangerously low territory. The watershed has seen multiple rounds of precipitation moving through. While the Lower portion of the valley has seen multiple rounds of precipitation this week, drier and colder conditions farther north will limit water movement and we should see a decline in levels next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central and northern areas will continue to see showers throughout the week, but there should be some breaks to complete some soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais through Friday before rains become heavier again over the weekend. The far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul remains mostly dry, however, with only limited chances for rain as a front moves through Thursday and Friday.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front passing through this week has brought scattered showers through the country's main growing regions this week, with showers moving north on Thursday. The region will go through a dry stretch for about 10 days where there will be little to no precipitation for the vast majority of the region. That dryness may undo the beneficial effects from recent rainfall.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The eastern half of the continent should see showers through the weekend while the south and west stays drier. Drier weather is expected next week for most areas except for the far south. Overall, winter wheat is in a favorable situation, though western areas could use more rain and the crop is vulnerable to a blast of cold air should it come with somewhat limited snow cover.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below to well below normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

East: Lake-effect snow Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below to well below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday-Friday, north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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