DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in northwest Mexico, an arm of the polar vortex in central Canada, a ridge in the Southeast, and another moving into the West Coast. Yet another trough is developing in the North Pacific. The pattern will be a little more progressive for the next couple of weeks. The western ridge will drift east through the U.S. the next few days, shoving the polar vortex east through Canada and eventually into the North Atlantic this weekend. The same goes for the Mexican trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The North Pacific trough will send a piece of energy through North America this weekend before pushing itself into the U.S. next week.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be above-normal for most of the country, but a little below normal in the Southwest. This pattern is likely to continue for next week. A system will move out of the West and into the Plains early next week with showers building as the system moves eastward.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...90 AT OCHOPEE, FL, IMMOKALEE, FL, AND MILES CITY, FL

LOW TUE...55 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT TUESDAY...MEMPHIS, TN 0.94 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in northwest Mexico, an arm of the polar vortex in central Canada, a ridge in the Southeast, and another moving into the West Coast. Yet another trough is developing in the North Pacific. The pattern will be a little more progressive for the next couple of weeks. The western ridge will drift east through the U.S. the next few days, shoving the polar vortex east through Canada and eventually into the North Atlantic this weekend. The same goes for the Mexican trough. The North Pacific trough will send a piece of energy through North America this weekend before pushing itself into the U.S. next week.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be above normal for most of the country, but a little below normal in the Southwest. This pattern is likely to continue for next week. A system will move out of the West and into the Plains early next week with showers building as the system moves eastward.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Very cold air in the region will be replaced by some warmer air in the next couple of days. Above normal temperatures forecast for the following week will reduce stress on livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Temperatures will be rising going into the weekend. Southern areas will see precipitation continuing through Thursday and will be cold enough for some freezing rain and snow accumulations in some areas. Drought areas in Oklahoma and Texas will see some precipitation, but not enough to turn the drought around in a meaningful way.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): It will be drier and cold for the rest of the week, with lake-effect snow late Thursday into Friday with another push of cold air.

The cold will be brief though as warmer air will build back into the region over the weekend. Another system will move through early-mid next week, but temperatures behind the system will continue to be mild.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): Recent precipitation has been able to keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River from falling into dangerously low territory. The watershed has seen multiple rounds of precipitation moving through. While the Lower portion of the valley will continue to see rain throughout the week, drier and colder conditions farther north will limit water movement and we should see a decline in levels next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central and northern areas will continue to see showers throughout the week, but there should be some breaks to complete some soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais. Rains become heavier again next week, which will set the table for more delays. The far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul remains mostly dry, however, with only limited chances for rain as a front moves through Thursday and Friday.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front pass through with scattered showers through Thursday, but showers may again miss some key areas. The country's primary growing areas will be in a stretch of drier weather again until about mid-February when the next significant front moves through. That dryness may undo the beneficial effects from recent rainfall.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The eastern half of the continent should see showers through the weekend while the south and west stays drier. Overall, winter wheat is in a favorable situation, though western areas could use more rain and the crop is vulnerable to a blast of cold air should it come with somewhat limited snow cover.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

East: Isolated snow. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below to well below normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday. Lake-effect snow Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, below to well below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday, north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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