DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a cutoff low across the Southern Plains with a ridge over most of North America and a trough up in Alaska. The cutoff low will be pushed northeast over the weekend while the Alaskan trough moves into the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

In the 6- to 10-day period, the western trough will send a large piece of energy eastward next week while the main trough shifts to central Canada next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blen, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be below normal in the West and above normal in the East. Colder temperatures will spread through the rest of the country with a cold front sweeping through but will be brief as warmer temperatures build back into the South and East next weekend. Cold air should continue in the Canadian Prairies and adjacent areas in the U.S. Beside the front sweeping through with scattered showers in the middle of next week, another front may bring some showers to the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley next weekend.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...90 AT MILES CITY, FL AND BIG CYPRESS RESERVATION, FL

LOW THU...24 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT THURSDAY...WACO, TX 2.20 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a cutoff low across the Southern Plains with a ridge over most of North America and a trough up in Alaska. The cutoff low will be pushed northeast over the weekend while the Alaskan trough moves into the West. The western trough will send a large piece of energy eastward next week while the main trough shifts to central Canada next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be below normal in the West and above normal in the East. Colder temperatures will spread through the rest of the country with a cold front sweeping through, but will be brief as warmer temperatures build back into the South and East next weekend. Cold air should continue in the Canadian Prairies and adjacent areas in the U.S. Beside the front sweeping through with scattered showers in the middle of next week, another front may bring some showers to the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move through this weekend with some light precipitation. Another system could bring some moderate precipitation Monday and Tuesday with cold, arctic air following the front.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A system that has been producing scattered showers across the south since Wednesday night will lift northeast on Saturday. Moderate to heavy snow will still be possible in west Texas. A strong cold front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers and a brief burst of cold air.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A large system in the Southern Plains will come through Saturday and Sunday with widespread precipitation, though mostly in the form of rain. Northwestern areas are unlikely to see any significant precipitation into early next week. A strong front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with more widespread precipitation and a brief shot of cold air.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): Recent precipitation to the north has improved water levels on the Mississippi River, but that is only temporary as the water levels are falling again. A system will bring scattered showers to the area and points north this weekend, which may hold off the decline a bit.

If another system can bring widespread precipitation next week, that would also keep water levels from falling too harshly.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Scattered showers will continue in central and northern Brazil as is typical for this time of year. Southern areas could see isolated showers fill back in over the weekend or early next week, but would be spotty and light. Precipitation has been below normal over southern areas for the last month. Good rains earlier in the spring have set corn and soybeans in mostly good shape to start the season, but soil moisture is starting to fall across the south and concerns are growing about increasing dryness where rains are disappointing as early-planted crops are getting closer to pollinating stages.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Dry conditions this week continue to exacerbate drought conditions despite recent periods of rain. Isolated showers will return to far southern areas over the weekend, and will spread through the rest of the country last week, but will be spotty and light overall. The dryness and drought continue to be concerns until showers become more consistent.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Several systems brought showers to most of the continent this week and may continue next week while wheat is still vegetative in a lot of the continent. Overall, soil moisture is favorable or improving as winter wheat starts to go dormant over the next few weeks for all but southern locations.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue in a few bursts this week and weekend. Soil moisture is mostly good for wheat before it goes dormant over the next couple of weeks. Prospects are high for a good crop depending on how much was able to be planted this fall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/SORGHUM/COTTON): Recent heavy rains in the east have caused quality concerns for winter wheat and canola over the winter and spring, but have also led to forecasts for record yields. More isolated showers are possible this weekend, but should be spotty. The drier weather this week should help crops dry out for harvest, which is starting to pick up.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday night-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through early Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers north Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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