USDA Nov. 1 Cattle on Feed Report

Nov. 1 Cattle on Feed Down 2%

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on Nov. 1, 2022, USDA NASS reported on Friday. (DTN ProphetX chart)

This article was originally published at 2:03 p.m. CST on Friday, Nov. 18. It was last updated with additional information at 2:35 p.m. CST on Friday, Nov. 18.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on Nov. 1, 2022. The inventory was 2% below Nov. 1, 2021, USDA NASS reported on Friday.

Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.11 million head, 6% below 2021. Placements were the lowest for October since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 2.05 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 545,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 465,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 450,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 378,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 190,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 80,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.80 million head, 1% above 2021.

Other disappearance totaled 54,000 head during October, 5% below 2021.

DTN ANALYSIS

"Friday's Cattle on Feed report was expected to be supportive of the market, as both total on-feed numbers and placements were assumed to be lower, and marketings were projected to be strong. But it was underestimated just how supportive the report would be!" said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.

"First, seeing a 2% decrease for the total number of cattle on feed by Nov. 1 is bullish news for feedlots and cow-calf producers. The industry fully expects to see thinner showlists moving throughout the remainder of 2022 and into 2023, which will consequently help feedlots drive cash cattle prices higher, especially if throughput continues to run as aggressively as it has been.

"Second, the placement data for the month of October was eye-opening, as everyone soberly understood that there were fewer calves/feeders marketed and placed throughout the month. But not many expected to see a 6% decrease from a year ago, and the 2.11 million head of placements is the lowest figure the COF report has seen for October since the series began back in 1996. Of the four major feeding states, Nebraska placed the most in October, as they managed to place 590,000 head, which was 6% less than what was placed a year ago. Texas came in with the second most placements at 440,000 head, which was down 14% from a year ago. Kansas came in with the third most placements, as they placed 420,000 head, which was 3% less than a year ago. And Colorado came in fourth with 175,000 head of placements, which was 5% less than a year ago.

"And, last but not least, seeing 1,802,000 head of cattle marketed in October is extremely helpful, as feedlots need to keep their showlists current if they're going to successfully push the cash cattle market higher.

"Needless to say, Friday's Cattle on Feed report should propel the cattle contracts higher come Monday."

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DTN subscribers can view the full Cattle on Feed reports in the Livestock Archives folder under the Markets menu. The report is also available at https://www.nass.usda.gov/….

USDA Actual Average Estimate Range
On Feed Nov. 1 98% 98.3% 97.8-99.1%
Placed in October 94% 96.4% 94.6-100.0%
Marketed in October 101% 100.8% 100.5-101.7%