Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong winter storm with arctic cold air spreading through the U.S., rain moving back into eastern Australia, and a brief return of showers for South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

TURNING COLD FOR MIDWEST

A storm will push through Thursday and Friday with strong winds, heavier showers across the north and a push of colder air. Some snow will be possible in Minnesota. The colder air will last through next week with a couple of reinforcing shots that may also bring some showers, mostly in the form of snow.

VERY COLD FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong storm system to the north is sweeping a cold front through the Central and Southern Plains Thursday. A line of showers is moving through with the front but is weak as drought continues to build across western areas. Gusty winds are coming with the system as well, which continues to dry out soils. Much colder air follows the system, with colder air lasting through next week. This could start to turn wheat dormant in poor condition. Another cold front will push through early next week with some additional showers and potential for accumulating snow across southern areas. There is some limited potential for precipitation over southwestern areas, mostly in the Texas Panhandle.

BLIZZARD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Heavy snow is falling in the Northern Plains on Thursday morning which will continue into Friday morning before clearing out. Some areas are likely to see over 12 inches of accumulation in the Dakotas. With strong winds developing, blizzard conditions will be possible Thursday into Friday. Very cold air is moving in behind the system, lasting through next week with a couple of reinforcing shots of arctic air and some light snow.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

Some isolated showers may develop over the Delta along a front on Friday, but dryness continues through the weekend. Water levels are forecast to remain largely unchanged or with a slight boost higher next week due to some better precipitation farther north. A system may bring showers to the region early next week.

SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHERN BRAZIL, BRIEFLY

Isolated showers are returning to Brazil, filling into southern areas on Friday. The showers will not last long over southern areas as another front clears out the area on Monday. If showers disappoint, soil moisture in southern areas will decline, starting to impact corn and, to a lesser extent, soybeans. Showers next week may still be possible for southern areas, but unlikely. Central areas should fare better with showers continuing.

BRIEF, BUT IMPORTANT SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Isolated showers are moving back into Argentina but will be cleared out on Sunday. A long period of dryness has had a significant effect on filling wheat as well as corn and soybean planting and establishment. Showers may still go through late next week with a weaker cold front, but will likely be isolated. If showers disappoint over the next few days, the drought will likely start to damage corn and soybeans, as well as push back planting even further.

DRIER IN THE BLACK SEA

Drier conditions are likely for the Black Sea region into next week with isolated showers possible in Russia this weekend. Warmer air has kept wheat active and avoiding dormancy, beneficial for root development. Some colder air will start to move in next week.

HEAVIER RAIN THIS WEEKEND IN AUSTRALIA

Recent heavy rainfall has caused a decrease in crop quality and flood damage in eastern Australia. Some showers may pop up at times over the next two days, but will be spotty. A system should bring more organized rain through the eastern half of the country this weekend, which would be unfavorable. It does dry out for several days behind the system.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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