Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong winter storm with a changing pattern for the U.S., rain moving back into eastern Australia, and a brief return of showers for South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

TURNING COLD FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers went through the middle of the Midwest over the weekend, with moderate to heavy rain for Missouri up through Wisconsin and northwestern Michigan, which may help river levels on the Lower Mississippi. A front will bring rain to northwestern areas through Wednesday, but a stronger storm will push through Thursday and Friday with strong winds and potential for heavier showers across the north and a push of colder air. Some snow will be possible in Minnesota. The colder air will last through next week with a couple of reinforcing shots that may also bring some isolated showers, mostly in the form of snow.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

The Central and Southern Plains will see some isolated showers Tuesday and Wednesday, but a stronger storm will develop Wednesday night. Most of the precipitation will occur north of the region, but there could be a line of stronger storms developing for eastern areas Thursday. Strong winds will develop with the system as well, which continues to dry out soils. Much colder air follows the system, with colder air lasting through most of next week. A cold front will push through in the middle of next week with some additional showers and potential for accumulating snow. There is some limited potential for precipitation over southwestern areas, but this will likely leave this region dry, as wheat may start to go dormant in poor condition.

BLIZZARD COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A low-pressure system is pushing a cold front through the Northern Plains on Tuesday. A stronger low center will develop on the front Wednesday night which will bring much more widespread and heavier precipitation through the region, with any rain turning over to heavy accumulating snow. Some areas are likely to see over 12 inches of accumulation in the Dakotas. With strong winds developing, blizzard conditions will be possible Thursday into Friday. Very cold air will follow behind the system, lasting through next week with a couple of reinforcing shots of arctic air and some light snow.

DRIER IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers went through the Delta over the weekend which may disrupt the remaining harvest. Dry weather is expected into next week. Water levels are forecast to remain largely unchanged or with a slight boost higher for the next week due to some better precipitation farther north.

SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO BRAZIL, BRIEFLY

Isolated showers will start to return to central Brazil on Wednesday while it will take until Friday to get into southern Brazil. The showers will not last long over southern areas as another front clears out the area on Monday. If showers disappoint, soil moisture in southern areas will decline, starting to impact corn and to a lesser extent, soybeans. Showers next week may still be possible for southern areas, but unlikely. Central areas should fare better with showers continuing.

BRIEF, BUT IMPORTANT SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Isolated showers will move into Argentina on Wednesday but will be cleared out of the country on Sunday. A long period of dryness has had a significant effect on filling wheat as well as corn and soybean planting and establishment. Showers may still go through next week with a couple of weaker cold fronts but will likely be isolated. If showers disappoint this week, the drought will likely start to damage corn and soybeans, as well as push back planting even further.

DRIER IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers went through Russia over the weekend, favoring winter wheat development, but causing further delays for corn and sunflower harvest in the Black Sea region. Drier conditions are likely this week with some showers possible in Russia this weekend. Warmer air in the region will help to keep wheat active and avoiding dormancy, beneficial for root development. Some colder air will start to move in next week, mostly for Russia.

HEAVIER RAIN THIS WEEK IN AUSTRALIA

Recent heavy rainfall has caused a decrease in crop quality and flood damage in eastern Australia. Some showers may pop up at times over the course of the week but will be spotty. A system should bring more organized rain through the eastern half of the country this weekend, which would be unfavorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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