Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Potential for rain in the Plains this week and a strong clearing front for South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WARM AGAIN FOR MIDWEST

Showers moved into southern areas of the Midwest over the weekend and will move northeast Monday. Dry weather continues afterward with rising temperatures that could approach records in some places in the middle of the week. A front will eventually find its way into western portions of the region Thursday and Friday with scattered showers. A storm system will develop along the front with more showers for the weekend. Eventually some cooler air will move into at least western areas but likely through the region behind the system next week.

MORE RAIN COMING TO SOUTHERN PLAINS

Showers moved out of the southeastern Plains on Saturday, replaced by dry air and mild temperatures. Temperatures will increase ahead of a cold front that will slowly slip into the region Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers. There will be a system that forms along the front this weekend that will bring more widespread showers, possibly for western wheat areas too.

NORTHERN PLAINS CAUGHT IN A DRIER SPOT

It was dry in the Northern Plains over the weekend with very warm temperatures for this time of year. That continues the next couple of days, but a cold front will slide through the region Wednesday and Thursday. More of the precipitation is likely to occur in Canada, but some showers may move through, which would be a mix of rain and snow. A stronger push of cold air comes through this weekend.

DRY FOR THE DELTA

A front brought widespread showers through the Delta over the weekend. The rain is making for small improvements on river levels that are still very low and will need much more. The rain also caused some delays to the remaining harvest. Drier conditions are expected for most of the week with a chance for showers coming through this weekend. Water levels are forecast to remain largely unchanged this week.

BRAZIL GOING DRY

A strong front is moving through Brazil with widespread and heavy showers through Tuesday, but it will get very dry behind this front going through much of November. Showers will eventually work back into central Brazil next week but will take longer for southern states. Soil moisture in the south continues to be very favorable and can withstand a period of dryness as long as it is not too severe for too long. Overall, conditions are still mostly favorable for corn and soybean establishment in most areas for now.

ARGENTINA FACING A WEEK OF DRYNESS

Some isolated showers moved through Argentina over the weekend with a strong front, but it has turned drier behind it. The dryness is expected to last for at least a full week with isolated showers moving back into the country in the middle of next week. The long period of dryness continues to have a significant effect on filling wheat as well as corn and soybean planting and establishment.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers went through the Black Sea region over the weekend, favoring winter wheat development, but causing further delays for corn and sunflower harvest. Another system moves through this week with more showers, keeping conditions fairly consistent. Warmer temperatures should help to keep wheat from going dormant for at least the next couple of weeks, favorable for root development with the ample soil moisture in most places.

HEAVY RAIN ENDING IN AUSTRALIA

More widespread rain moved into eastern Australia this weekend. Crop quality has been feared to be decreasing with recent heavy rains and flooding. Drier conditions are expected starting Tuesday and lasting into the middle of November, which will help.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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