Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Widespread cold and dryness this week and a pattern change coming up both for both North and South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

COLD WITH LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS IN MIDWEST

Cold air moved back into the Midwest over the weekend and produced scattered showers near the Great Lakes. The continuation of cold air should bring lake-effect rain and snow showers to the prone areas through Wednesday, annoying to those who have yet to harvest. A pattern change coming this weekend will bring warmer air to the region along with potential for showers farther west.

COLD AND DRY FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong cold front moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend with scattered showers occurring over Oklahoma and Texas. The front will slip south on Monday before the region goes drier again. Cold air moving into the region will produce more widespread frosts and freezes for the next couple of mornings. A pattern change coming this weekend will bring better chances for widespread precipitation to drought areas next week, which may be beneficial for winter wheat establishment. Long-standing drought in the region will be hard to reverse, however.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING DRIER

A few showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but it will be dry this week, allowing for better harvest conditions for those yet to go. A pattern change is coming this weekend, which will bring storms through the region with heavier rain potential, wind gusts, and colder air.

DELTA GOING COLD AND DRY

A cold front brought scattered showers to parts of the Delta over the weekend. Cold air filling in behind the front will produce frosts and freezes for much of the region over the next couple of mornings, putting an end to the growing season for those with late-developing crops.

BRAZIL TO SEE PATTERN CHANGE

Scattered showers fell over southern Brazil this weekend while it dried out over central and northern areas. A couple of weak disturbances will continue the showers over southern areas through Thursday before the region goes drier. That will return showers to central areas, making for mostly good conditions for planting and establishment this week. Dryness over southern areas is forecast to last a while but may not be completely dry. Still, an extended period of dryness will change prospects for corn and soybeans, even though temperatures are forecast to be below normal.

DROUGHT CONTINUING IN ARGENTINA

A few light showers fell in a couple of isolated spots in Argentina over the weekend, but most areas were dry. A disturbance moving through will bring showers to the country on Wednesday and Thursday, while a front brings isolated showers to southern areas Friday and Saturday, but amounts are likely to be spotty and not turn around the overall dryness that has been plaguing the region for months. Winter wheat filling and corn establishment is already suffering, while soybean planting will likely be pushed back as well since that usually starts up this week. Long-range models continue to suggest the dryness continuing well into November.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA

Dry weather occurred in the Black Sea region over the weekend, favoring fieldwork. A cold front will move through in the middle-to-end of the week, bringing some showers and cooler temperatures. Showers continue to favor wheat development but may cause further delays for corn and sunflower harvest.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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