DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...105 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...17 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT WEDNESDAY...MONTGOMERY, AL 1.25 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The trough will be reinforced by another disturbance over the weekend and likely another one next week, continuing the ridge-west and trough-east pattern through the end of next week. The pattern will start to shift next weekend as a trough moves into the West and the ridge moves to the Central region, pushing the eastern trough offshore.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Thursday will be above normal in the West and below to well-below normal in the Central and East. Colder temperatures will eventually fade later in the week as warmer temperatures spread eastward. Showers will continue around the Great Lakes early next week, which may include some snow. A system will move into the Pacific Northwest toward next weekend with scattered showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stronger cold front will move through this weekend with more isolated showers and another round of colder air, at least in the east. Showers should be rather light for the most part, as harvest continues to progress well. Temperatures will go on a rising trend next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A strong cold front coming through this weekend may have more widespread showers across the south along with a burst of cold air. Recent and forecast rains across Texas are helping to reduce drought and improve prospects for winter wheat establishment, but areas from Kansas northward are having much poorer conditions.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A pair strong of cold fronts moved through with scattered showers this week, producing some moderate amounts in several locations that may cause some delays to harvest, but improve moisture somewhat for winter wheat. A stronger cold front will move through this weekend with more isolated showers and widespread cold going into next week. That may induce some lake-effect showers, including some snow for a few prone areas. Temperatures will gradually rise later next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A cold front brought scattered showers through the region Wednesday and another this weekend into early next week should do the same. That front will come with much colder air, potentially producing the region's first frosts and freezes early next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Scattered showers continue with a front stalled across the country through Friday. Some spottier showers will continue this weekend into next week across the south, but will become more isolated and likely dry up around the middle of next week. Showers should continue over central and northern areas. Southern areas have had good rainfall so far this season and can withstand a period of dryness, as long as it is not too long or intense. Otherwise, conditions are still good for corn and soybean planting and establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Dry conditions continue for most areas for the next week, with chances for a few light showers in a couple of spots.

Conditions continue to be poor for winter wheat development and corn planting.

Dryness could start to have a delaying effect to soybean planting, which typically starts up in the next week or so.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Showers are moving through the continent for the next week, but will be limited for most areas outside of the northwest quadrant.

Recent widespread rains have been good winter wheat establishment for most areas.

BLACK SEA (CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers have been helpful for winter wheat, but have caused delays to corn and sunflower harvest. A period of drier weather is expected through the weekend and into next week for most of the region. That should help out with fieldwork.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A strong storm system is bringing widespread rainfall for eastern areas over the next day or so while another is forecast for next week. Conditions are mostly good for winter wheat and canola filling, but the consistent rains may start to delay maturing and early harvest.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated showers through Sunday, mostly north. Scattered showers Monday, some snows possible. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, below normal Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Lake-effect showers Tuesday, some snow possible. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers east. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers south Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday, mostly north. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.