USDA Reports Summary
USDA Lowers Corn, Soybean Yields Slightly
This article was originally posted at 11:04 a.m. CDT on Wednesday, Oct. 12. It was last updated with additional information at 01:14 p.m. CDT on Wednesday, Oct. 12.
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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Wednesday released its October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.
USDA shaved corn production 49 million bushels (mb) to 13.895 billion bushels (bb) and cut yield .6 bushels per acre (bpa) to 171.9 bpa, right in line with pre-report estimates.
USDA lowered its yield estimate for soybeans to 49.8 bpa, .7 bpa lower than September's estimate. It left planted and harvested area unchanged at 87.5 million acres and 86.6 million acres, respectively. That put overall production at 4.313 bb, within the range of pre-report expectations.
USDA estimates U.S. wheat ending stocks at 576 mb, the lowest level in 15 years and above the pre-report estimate of 563 mb.
DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman thinks Wednesday's U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, slightly bullish for soybeans. Hultman pegged USDA's world ending stocks estimates as neutral for corn and wheat, but slightly bearish for soybean prices.
Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often as we will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from today's reports, including commentary from our analysts.
You can also access the full reports here:
-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
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CORN
Production is pegged at 13.895 bb, a three-year low.
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USDA also increased corn imports from 25 mb to 50 mb as well. That put total supply at 15.322 bb, still down 172 mb from September's forecast.
On the demand side, USDA increased feed and residual use 50 mb but lowered domestic demand 50 mb for "Feed, Seed and Residual" to 6.725 bb.
Ethanol demand was also lowered 50 mb to 5.275 bb. That put total domestic use at 12 bb, the same as September.
Exports were also lowered 125 mb to 2.15 bb as well.
Total use came in at 14.15 bb, down 125 mb from September.
The 2022-23 ending stocks are projected at 1.172 bb, a 10-year low.
USDA bumped up the farmgate price 5 cents a bushel to $6.80 a bushel.
Globally, USDA lowered 2022-23 beginning stocks 5.13 million metric tons (mmt) to 307.01 mmt. Production was reduced globally 3.84 mmt to 1168.74 mmt. Exports globally were lowered .54 mmt to 183.04 mmt. Ending stocks are now forecast at 301.19 mmt, down 3.34 mmt.
Looking at production elsewhere, USDA held pat on Brazil at 126 mmt and Argentina at 55 mmt. On Exports, USDA increased Ukraine's export 2.5 mmt to 15.5 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA lowered its yield estimate for soybeans to 49.8 bpa, .7 bpa lower than September's estimate. It left planted and harvested area unchanged at 87.5 million acres and 86.6 million acres, respectively. That put overall production at 4.313 bb, within the range of pre-report expectations.
Ending stocks for 2022-23 were left unchanged at 200 mb, although USDA did adjust demand categories. The estimate for crush use increased by 10 mb, while export demand was lowered by 40 mb. Residual use declined by 1 mb. Lower production estimates and higher beginning stocks made up the difference.
Beginning stocks, which are also 2021-22 ending stocks, increased by 34 mb to 274 mb, reflecting increased production following September's Grain Stocks report.
For the 2022-23 marketing year, USDA lowered the national average farm gate price to $14 per bushel.
Global soybean ending stocks for 2022-23 increased 1.6 mmt to 100.52 mmt, within the range of pre-report estimates. The increase is largely due to higher beginning stocks and production.
South American farmers are just getting started planting the 2022-23 crop, and while USDA left Argentina's soybean production unchanged from previous estimates at 51 mmt, it increased Brazilian production by 3 mmt to 152 mmt. USDA also sees higher exports from Brazil and Argentina offsetting a decline in U.S. exports.
China is expected to buy 1 mmt more soybean on the global market than previously thought, amounting to 98 mmt.
WHEAT
USDA estimates U.S. wheat use at 1.86 bb, down from 1.94 bb in September. USDA estimates production at 1.65 bb for October, down from 1.78 bbin September. USDA estimates total acres harvested at 35.5 million, down from 37.5 million in September.
Wheat exports were estimated at 775 mb, also down from September. USDA bumped the farmgate price of wheat from $9 to $9.20 in October.
Wheat world ending stocks were estimated 267.5 mmt, above pre-report estimates of 267.1 mmt and a reduction from 268.6 mmt in September.
USDA estimates global wheat production at 781.7 mmt, down from 783.9 mmt in September.
USDA estimates wheat production in Russia at 91 mmt, unchanged from September. Ukraine wheat production is estimated at 20.5 mmt, also unchanged from September.
Wheat exports from Russia were estimated at 42 mmt, unchanged from September. Ukraine's wheat exports also were left unchanged at 11 mmt.
LIVESTOCK
Wednesday's WASDE report shared mostly supportive news to the beef and cattle markets. Beef production for 2022 was raised, as both the third and fourth quarters expect larger production than what was originally anticipated a month ago. This hike in production stems from aggressive throughput in the packing sector, along with heavier carcass weights. Production for 2022 rose by 130 million pounds from last month's report. The third quarter's average steer price gained $0.42 from September's report to average $143.42, and fourth quarter steer prices are now expected to average $148.00, which is a $1.00 increase from last month.
Both the first and second quarters of 2023 are unchanged for price projections as in the first quarter of 2023 steers are expected to average $151, and in the second quarter $152. Beef imports for 2022 were fell by 25 million pounds, while beef exports grew by 10 million pounds.
Wednesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog complex. Pork production for 2022 grew by 15 million pounds from September's report as slaughter speeds have been running more aggressively than originally assumed for the third quarter. The third quarter saw a slight price reduction as third quarter prices are now expected to average $71.30, as opposed to $73.80, which was September's projection. Barrow and gilt prices in the fourth quarter saw a minor reduction as they're now anticipated to average $71.08, as opposed to September's projection of $71.30. Pork imports for 2022 were reduced by 20 million pounds, but exports also fell by 105 million pounds.
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Editor's Note: Join DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Wednesday, Oct. 12, for a look at what the day's numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://www.dtn.com/…
| U.S. PRODUCTION (million bushels) 2022-23 | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | 2021-22 | |
| Corn | 13,895 | 13,891 | 14,056 | 13,766 | 13,944 | 15,115 |
| Soybeans | 4,313 | 4,379 | 4,463 | 4,309 | 4,378 | 4,435 |
| U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2022-23 (WASDE) | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | 2021-22 | |
| Corn | 171.9 | 171.9 | 173.9 | 170.1 | 172.5 | 177.0 |
| Soybeans | 49.8 | 50.5 | 51.3 | 49.8 | 50.5 | 51.4 |
| U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2022-23 | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | 2021-22 | |
| Corn | 80.8 | 80.8 | 80.9 | 80.5 | 80.8 | 85.4 |
| Soybeans | 86.6 | 86.6 | 86.7 | 86.5 | 86.6 | 86.3 |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2022-23 | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | ||
| Corn | 1,172 | 1,127 | 1,255 | 1,000 | 1,219 | |
| Soybeans | 200 | 240 | 327 | 187 | 200 | |
| Wheat | 576 | 563 | 615 | 477 | 610 | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2021-22 | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | ||
| Corn | 307.0 | 307.7 | 314.3 | 280.3 | 312.1 | |
| Soybeans | 92.4 | 90.0 | 92.3 | 88.5 | 89.7 | |
| Wheat | 276.0 | 275.7 | 278.0 | 274.2 | 275.7 | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2022-23 | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | ||
| Corn | 301.2 | 301.6 | 311.0 | 280.3 | 304.5 | |
| Soybeans | 100.5 | 99.6 | 103.2 | 97.5 | 98.9 | |
| Wheat | 267.5 | 267.1 | 270.0 | 262.6 | 268.6 | |
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