DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...112 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW THU...23 AT SHINGLETON, MI, RAPID RIVER, MI, AND CANADA CREEK RANCH, MI

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT THURSDAY...ORLANDO, FL 10.33 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across most of North America, Ian off the Carolina Coast, and a small trough in the Northern Rockies. The upper-level pattern will be stagnant for the next few days before a trough moves down through eastern Canada and pushes both features eastward early- to mid-next week. That trough will dig into the eastern U.S. late next week and weekend while the ridge remains quite firm across the West.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal in the East and near to above normal elsewhere. A brief shot of colder air will come through the eastern half of the country later next week, while it should stay warmer across the West. A strong cold front will push through the country mid- to late-next week, but have little precipitation with it.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A small system will produce areas of showers going into early next week. Some spots may get some moderate amounts but most should see light rain. There may be some disruption to the ongoing harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A weak system in the Rockies will produce some isolated showers into early next week. Showers should be very isolated and not have much of an impact on any operations. Conditions continue to be poor for winter wheat establishment and pasture regrowth, but good for corn and soybean harvest.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions continue for through the weekend for most areas, though the remnants to Ian could produce some showers in the far southeastern Midwest while Minnesota also sees a few light showers.

Some showers will move through early-to-mid next week with a system and cold front combining over the region, but showers should be limited. That will be followed by another burst of colder air, however. Overall, conditions remain mostly favorable for harvest. Dry spots in some of the winter wheat areas are unfavorable for establishment.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Dry conditions are forecast for the next week. Harvest conditions continue to be quite good.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Recent showers have continued to provide good soil moisture for Brazil as planting increases. Scattered showers dry out this weekend. The daily wet season showers in central Brazil will continue afterward, and another front is forecast to bring showers through the region mid-late next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Dryness continues to create unfavorable conditions for developing wheat and corn planting. Scattered showers may return next week but forecasts have turned much lighter with the precipitation. The region is in desperate need for more rain.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Widespread showers continue through the weekend with a chance to dry out next week. Conditions continue to favor winter wheat planting and establishment, but delay harvest of summer grains.

BLACK SEA (CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers have done well to fill soils in the region but have also delayed fall harvest. Periods of showers will continue across Ukraine into next week, with more limited rainfall expected in western Russia until next week. Overall conditions are mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Showers will disrupt the corn harvest, however.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers have been favorable for maintaining abundant soil moisture for most of the country's growing areas. A stronger storm system is expected to develop next week that will bring more widespread moderate to heavy rain to eastern areas of the country, followed by some much colder air. Outside of some colder temperatures, conditions continue to be good for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers far southeast Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures near to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers northwest Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

Darren Miller can be reached at Darren.Miller@dtn.com

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