DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough in the East, a ridge in the West, and another trough off the West Coast. The ridge is spreading east, starting to push the trough offshore. Part of it will be left behind as Hurricane Ian sits in the Southeast into early next week. The western trough will move into the ridge Thursday and Friday and stall through the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the overall ridge continues with the small disturbance moving east through the Corn Belt next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal across most of the country. A brief shot of some cooler air may come through the Northeast next week, otherwise it should remain quite warm for early October. The remnants to Hurricane Ian will leave Mid-Atlantic and Southeast early next week. A small system will remain stuck in the Plains for a few days next week before pushing eastward through the Corn Belt. Only periods of isolated showers are forecast, otherwise dry conditions are expected next week for most areas.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...112 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...21 AT MACKAY, ID

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT TUESDAY...KEY WEST, FL 4.55 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the East, a ridge in the West, and another trough off the West Coast. The ridge is spreading east, starting to push the trough offshore. The western trough will move into the ridge Thursday and Friday and stall around the Rockies for several days, moving eastward later next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal across most of the country. A brief shot of some cooler air may come through the Northeast next week, otherwise it should remain quite warm for early October. The remnants to Hurricane Ian will leave Mid-Atlantic and Southeast early next week. A small system will remain stuck in the Plains for a few days next week before pushing eastward through the Corn Belt. Only periods of isolated showers are forecast, otherwise dry conditions are expected next week for most areas.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions for the next couple of days with increasing temperatures. A small system will move into the region with a few showers on Friday that will last into early next week. There may be some disruption to the ongoing harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Warm and dry conditions continue this week, unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, as well as pasture regrowth, but favorable for corn and soybean harvest. A weak system will move into the region this weekend and continue into early next week, bringing a few showers through. Showers should be very isolated and not have much of an impact on any operations.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A shot of colder air will be producing some frosts this morning and tonight across the north. Other than the cold, it should be dry, with harvest conditions mostly favorable for the next week. The remnants to Hurricane Ian are expected to stay south and east of the region but a few showers could sneak into the far eastern areas of the region this weekend.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Dry conditions are forecast for the next week. Harvest conditions continue to be quite good.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Recent showers have continued to provide good soil moisture for Brazil as planting increases. Scattered showers continue this week for most areas before drying out this weekend. The daily wet season showers in central Brazil will continue afterward, and another front is forecast to bring showers through the region mid-late next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Dryness continues this week, with unfavorable conditions for developing wheat and corn planting. Scattered showers may return next week but forecasts have turned much lighter with the precipitation.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Widespread showers continue this week but so are some cooler temperatures. Some patchy frosts may occur if clouds clear out at night, but that should be limited. Otherwise, conditions continue to favor winter wheat planting and establishment, but delay harvest of summer grains.

BLACK SEA (CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers have done well to fill soils in the region but have also delayed fall harvest. Periods of showers will continue across Ukraine this week, with more limited rainfall expected in western Russia until next week. Overall conditions are mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Showers will disrupt the corn harvest, however.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers have been favorable for maintaining abundant soil moisture for most of the country's growing areas.

Outside of some colder temperatures, conditions continue to be good for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers north Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

East: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers far southeast Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

Darren Miller can be reached at Darren.Miller@dtn.com

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