Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Good harvest weather in the Corn Belt, the track of Hurricane Ian, and widespread rains in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

TURNING COOLER IN MIDWEST

Isolated to scattered showers moved through the Midwest over the weekend, but most were light. A shot of cooler air moves through this week and brings a few showers to the Great Lakes, but conditions will be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest. The remnants to Hurricane Ian are expected to stay south and east of the region.

DROUGHT INCREASING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warm and dry conditions continue in the Central and Southern Plains for most of this week, unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment as well as pasture regrowth, but favorable for corn and soybean harvest. A weak system will pass off to the north this weekend into early next week but may bring a few showers through. Otherwise, the dryness and warmth continue.

GOOD HARVEST CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A few showers moved through the Northern Plains on Saturday, but most areas were dry this weekend. Dry conditions are likely for most of the week with increasing temperatures. A small system will move through late this week and continue into next week with a few showers, but good harvest conditions are expected to largely continue.

DRIER IN THE DELTA

A few showers moved through the Delta over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. Dryness is likely for the next week with Hurricane Ian staying well to the east.

SOUTHEAST BRACING FOR IAN

Hurricane Ian will move through the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week with landfall likely in Florida Thursday night or Friday. The system will then continue north and northeast through the Southeast, bringing potentially flooding rainfall and potential wind damage to mature crops.

WIDESPREAD RAINS IN BRAZIL

Recent showers have continued to provide good soil moisture for Brazil as planting increases. Scattered showers continue this week for most areas before drying out this weekend. The daily wet season showers in central Brazil will continue afterward, however.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN ARGENTINA

Dryness over the weekend in Argentina continues this week, with unfavorable conditions for developing wheat and corn planting. Scattered showers may return next week, and models are more optimistic about this chance for rain.

MORE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT PLANTING

Recent showers have done well to fill soils in the Black Sea region but have also delayed fall harvest. Periods of showers will continue across Ukraine this week, with more limited rainfall expected in western Russia. Still, overall conditions are mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Showers will disrupt the corn harvest, however.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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