Commodities Market Impact Weather

System Moving Into the Plains

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A break in the heat in the U.S. and widespread rains in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN MIDWEST

A weak system moving across the Midwest Friday through the weekend will produce scattered showers. Another round of chilly air moves through next week behind a stronger cold front with some showers around the Great Lakes. Rains will provide a drink for some winter wheat areas but should be weak enough keep harvest rolling for most areas.

DROUGHT INCREASES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front moving through the Central and Southern Plains and a system riding along and north of it for Thursday and Friday will produce scattered showers for the region, mostly across the north. While some good rains have fallen in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, drought has increased across most of the region due to heat and a lack of rain. With temperatures likely to rise above normal next week with a return to a dry forecast, drought continues to have a huge influence on planting and establishment for wheat, and limits moisture recharge for pastures.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers are expected in the Northern Plains through Saturday with a system moving through. These showers will be hit or miss, and should not have much of an impact on corn or soybean harvest, or soil recharge for pastures. Lower temperatures in place will not last long, rising above normal again next week.

DRIER AND HOT IN DELTA, EYES TOWARD CARIBBEAN

Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures in the Delta through the weekend will help crops toward maturity and improve quality. Showers should largely be absent, with a slight chance over northern areas on Thursday and across the region on Sunday. Still, conditions will be good for maturing and harvesting crops. Eyes will remain focused on the tropics with a tropical system forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico next week. Forecasts for track and timing are quite variable.

SOME SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent showers in the Canadian Prairies have been unfavorable for harvest, but are adding some soil moisture recharge in a few spots. Some showers may be possible in spots late Thursday into the weekend before largely drying up for next week and a return to much better harvest conditions sets back up.

WIDESPREAD RAINS IN BRAZIL

Showers have continued to provide good soil moisture for Brazil as planting increases. Another front Sunday into next week will add to rain totals, especially in central Brazil. Lower temperatures are moving into the region, but frosts are not forecast. Conditions overall are quite good to start the planting season.

CONTINUED DRYNESS AND COLD IN ARGENTINA

Low temperatures have led to some scattered frosts in Argentina during the last couple mornings. Dryness and low temperatures have pushed the first phase of corn planting back by quite a bit and may have damaged wheat. Some showers may drift through the country during the next week, but will be very isolated and not overly helpful.

MORE FAVORABLE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT PLANTING

Recent showers have done well to fill soils in the Black Sea region but have also delayed fall harvest. Periods of showers will pop up across the region through the weekend. It becomes a bit drier next week, but periods of showers will still move through, especially in Ukraine.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick