DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge in the Central, a trough in the West, and another trough in eastern Canada and Northeast. The Canadian trough continues to push eastward.

The trough in the West will move through the Corn Belt, deepening in the East this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, ridge will build behind the trough in the West over the weekend, spreading east next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be above normal in the West and near to below normal in the East. The warmer temperatures will spread eastward next week. The extended range looks rather dry. However, the country will be eyeing a potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico sometime next week.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...103 AT CHANUTE, KS AND CLEARVIEW, OK

LOW WED...24 AT OLNEY, MT, YAAK, MT, AND GOLD BUTTE, MT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT WEDNESDAY...FLINT, MI 0.91 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the Central, a trough in the West, and another trough in eastern Canada and Northeast. The Canadian trough continues to push eastward.

The trough in the West will move through the Corn Belt, deepening in the East this weekend. A ridge will build behind the trough in the West over the weekend, spreading east next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be above normal in the West and near to below normal in the East. The warmer temperatures will spread eastward next week. The extended range looks rather dry. However, the country will be eyeing a potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico sometime next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers are expected through Saturday with a system moving through. These showers will be hit-or-miss and should not have much of an impact on corn or soybean harvest, or soil recharge for pastures. Cooler temperatures in place will not last long, rising above normal again next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A front moving through the region and a system riding along and north of it for Thursday and Friday will produce scattered showers for the region, mostly across the north. While some good rains have fallen in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, much of the southwestern Plains wheat areas are not forecast to see much of any precipitation. With temperatures likely to rise above normal next week and a return to a dry forecast, drought continues to have a huge influence on planting and establishment for wheat and is limiting for moisture recharge for pastures.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A weak system moving across the region Friday through the weekend will produce scattered showers. Another round of chilly air moves through next week behind a stronger cold front with some showers around the Great Lakes. Rains will provide a drink for some winter wheat areas and should be weak enough to not delay harvest in too many areas.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures through the weekend will help crops toward maturity and improve quality. Showers should largely be absent, with a slight chance over northern areas on Thursday and across the region on Sunday. Still, conditions will be good for maturing and harvesting crops. Eyes will remain focused on the tropics with a tropical system forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico next week. Forecasts for track and timing are quite variable.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Showers have continued to provide good soil moisture for Brazil as planting increases. Another front Sunday into next week will add to rain totals, especially in central Brazil. Colder temperatures are moving into the region, but frosts are not forecast.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Cooler temperatures have led to some scattered frosts over the last couple of mornings. Dryness and cool temperatures have pushed the first phase of corn planting back by quite a bit and may have damaged wheat. Some showers may drift through the country over the next week but will be very isolated and not overly helpful.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers have been unfavorable for harvest but are adding some soil moisture recharge in a few spots. Some showers may be possible in spots late Thursday into the weekend before largely drying up for next week and a return to much better harvest conditions sets back up.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Recent showers are benefiting soil recharge and establishment of winter grains. The next cold front moves into western areas this weekend. More widespread showers will follow behind the front as it spreads southeast through the continent, which would benefit winter crops if they can get planted.

BLACK SEA (CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers have done well to fill soils in the region but have also delayed fall harvest. Periods of showers will pop up across the region through the weekend. It becomes a bit drier next week, but periods of showers will still move through, especially in Ukraine.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers continue have been favorable for maintaining abundant soil moisture for most of the country's growing areas.

Another system moves through eastern areas next week with more rainfall, but will be followed by some colder air. Outside of the colder temperatures, conditions continue to be good for winter wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, near normal Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday, near normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday night-Monday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures below normal through Monday.

Darren Miller can be reached at Darren.Miller@dtn.com

John Baranick