Commodities Market Impact Weather

Strong Cold Front Moving Through

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Hot and relatively dry conditions in the southwestern Plains and widespread rains in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN MIDWEST

Limited showers will be possible the rest of the week in the Midwest with a front moving through Tuesday and Wednesday and a weak system moving through Friday through the weekend. Cooler temperatures will arrive behind the first system and will remain seasonable afterward. Rains will provide a drink for some winter wheat areas and should be weak enough to not delay harvest in too many areas.

HEAT WITH LIMITED RAINS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through portions of Nebraska and Kansas over the weekend but missed a lot of the winter wheat areas. Heat is occurring ahead of a cold front, with triple-digit readings the next day or two. That front will move into the region Wednesday, push down temperatures significantly, and stall for a couple of days as system rides along and north of it for Thursday and Friday. Scattered showers are again expected over the northern half of the region, but the southwestern Plains wheat areas are not forecast to see much if any precipitation. With temperatures rising above normal again next week, drought continues to have a huge influence on planting and establishment for wheat and is limiting for moisture recharge for pastures.

STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving through the Northern Plains with scattered showers on Tuesday, followed by another late in the week with more showers. These will be hit-or-miss and should not have much of an impact on corn and soybeans harvest, or soil recharge for pastures. A brief cool shot moves through in the middle of the week, but temperatures should rise well above normal next week again.

DRIER AND WARM IN THE DELTA

Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures in the Delta over the next week continue to help crops toward maturity and improve quality for some of the wetter areas. Showers should largely be absent this week, with a slight chance over northern areas on Thursday and across the region on Sunday. Still, conditions will be good for maturing and harvesting crops.

SHOWERS FOR REMAINING CANADIAN PRAIRIES HARVEST

Recent showers have been unfavorable for harvest in the Canadian Prairies but are adding some soil moisture recharge in a few spots. Scattered showers are moving through early this week and some additional showers may be possible in spots late Thursday into the weekend before largely drying up.

WIDESPREAD RAINS IN BRAZIL

Recent showers have continued to provide good soil moisture for southern Brazil as planting increases. Another front should be quite active this week for most of the agricultural areas, favoring increased soil moisture and the potential start to the wet season in central Brazil. However, the daily showers we expect to come along with the wet season may be a couple of weeks away. Still, soil moisture improvements will continue as planting progresses. Another front this weekend into next week could add to rain totals, especially in central Brazil.

CONTINUED DRYNESS AND COLD IN ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina this weekend but provided only scattered light precipitation. Cooler temperatures moving in behind the front could also produce some scattered frosts. Dryness and cool temperatures have pushed the first phase of corn planting back by quite a bit and may have damaged wheat.

MORE FAVORABLE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT PLANTING

Recent showers have filled up soils in the Black Sea region but have also delayed fall harvest. Periods of showers will pop up across the region over the course of the week, favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment where it can be done.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick