Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heat Early This Week for Plains

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Hot and relatively dry conditions in the Central and Southern Plains and widespread rains in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers developed across the Midwest over the weekend. Rains will provide a drink for some winter wheat areas, but any severe weather that occurred could have damaged mature corn and soybeans waiting to be harvested. Limited showers will be possible the rest of the week with a front moving through on Tuesday and Wednesday and a weak system moving through Friday through the weekend. Cooler temperatures will arrive behind the first system and will remain seasonable afterward.

HEAT WITH LIMITED RAINS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through portions of Nebraska and Kansas over the weekend, producing some severe weather, but missed a lot of the winter wheat areas. The showers may have been locally heavy but did not produce a lot of widespread rain. A front will move into the region on Wednesday and stall for a couple of days, followed by another system late in the week. Scattered showers are again expected over the northern half of the region, but the southwestern Plains wheat areas are not forecast to see much, if any, precipitation. With temperatures well above normal the next few days, drought continues to have a huge influence on planting and establishment for wheat and is limiting moisture recharge for pastures.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but were very hit-or-miss. Another system will move through Monday and Tuesday with more scattered showers, followed by another late in the week with more showers. These too will be hit-or-miss and should not have much of an impact on corn, soybeans, or soil recharge for pastures. A brief cool shot moves through in the middle of the week, but temperatures should rise well above normal by next week again.

DRIER AND WARM IN THE DELTA

Dry conditions and rising temperatures in the Delta over the next week will help crops toward maturity and improved quality for some of the wetter areas. Showers should largely be absent this week, with a slight chance over northern areas on Thursday and across the region over the weekend. Still, conditions will be good for maturing and harvesting crops.

SHOWERS FOR REMAINING CANADIAN PRAIRIES HARVEST

Recent showers have been somewhat unfavorable for harvest in the Canadian Prairies but are adding some soil moisture recharge in a few spots. Scattered showers are moving through early this week and some additional showers may be possible in spots late Thursday through the weekend. Showers may continue to delay remaining harvest, but also improve some soil moisture.

BENEFICIAL RAINS IN BRAZIL

Recent showers have continued to provide good soil moisture for southern Brazil as planting increases. Another front moving into Brazil should be quite active this week for most of the agricultural areas, favoring increased soil moisture and the potential start to the wet season in central Brazil. However, the daily showers we expect to come along with the wet season may be a couple of weeks away. Still, soil moisture improvements will continue as planting progresses. Another front this weekend into next week could add to rain totals, especially in central Brazil.

CONTINUED DRYNESS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD IN ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina this weekend but provided only scattered light precipitation to the region. Cooler temperatures moving in behind the front could also produce some scattered frosts. Dryness and cool temperatures have pushed the first phase of corn planting back by quite a bit and may have damaged wheat.

MORE FAVORABLE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT PLANTING

Recent showers have filled up soils in Ukraine but have also delayed fall harvest. Showers were more isolated in Russia over the weekend, but periods of showers will pop up across the region over the course of the week, helping with soil recharge and wheat establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick