Commodities Market Impact Weather

GRAND ISLAND, Neb. (DTN) -- Rising temperatures in the Plains and Midwest and a longshot at rain in the southwestern Plains late next week are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MIDWEST MOSTLY DRYING OUT

Scattered showers moved across the Midwest since late last week, providing some late relief for drier areas looking to fill some soybeans, but likely had no effect on corn. Soil moisture may have improved prior to winter wheat planting in some limited areas as well. Temperatures will rise well above normal going into the weekend, which should help push crops toward maturity. Scattered showers will be possible over northwestern areas later this week into next week while the southeast stays much drier.

OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAINS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Drought continues to have a strong hold on the Central and Southern Plains while producers are thinking about winter wheat planting. Pieces of energy will move through the Northern Plains for the next week but may be enough to produce some limited areas of rain, mostly in Nebraska. The larger wheat areas and pastures are not forecast to see much coverage or intensity while temperatures rise well above normal. There is an outside chance for some heavier rain later next week, but models are only starting to handle that system over a week away.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Several disturbances will move through the Northern Plains through next week, resulting in periods of showers. Rains may have some late benefit to filling soybeans, but not likely for corn. Temperatures may waffle but be mostly above normal until possibly the middle of next week when a cooler shot may occur.

DRY IN THE DELTA

In the Delta, dry conditions and rising temperatures over the next week should help crops reach maturity and improve quality for some of the wetter areas.

SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES HARVEST

Fairly good harvest conditions in the Canadian Prairies over the last week or two are going to turn to a more active pattern this week as periods of isolated to scattered showers move through. Delays to harvest may occur through next week.

BENEFICIAL RAINS IN BRAZIL

A stalled front will continue to produce periods of showers and thunderstorms across southern Brazil this week, but not in Rio Grande do Sul, which will help with wheat harvest. Some showers may make it into central Brazil this week but should not be the start of the wet season, which typically comes at the end of the month.

WEEKEND FROSTS MAY HAVE DAMAGED ARGENTINA WHEAT

Cold air produced widespread frosts and freezes in Argentina over the weekend, which may have damaged more developed wheat. Dryness this week is also unfavorable as soil moisture is limited prior to the first round of corn planting, which is going to see some delays this year. Showers may come at the end of the weekend, which would help, but may again be followed by a round of cold air.

MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT PLANTING

Moderate to heavy rain moved into the Black Sea region over the weekend, boosting soil moisture for winter wheat planting. Another system will bring more rains to the region later this week and weekend but come with a shot of cold air as well, which may result in frosts in some northern areas. If it does, that would put an end to any corn or sunflowers that are still filling, and limit winter wheat establishment some.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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