Commodities Market Impact Weather

Strong Cold Front Bringing Only Limited Relief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong cold front moving through the U.S. and frost potential in Argentina are the short-term weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COLD FRONT TO WRAP UP IN MIDWEST

A front will slowly move through the Midwest through Tuesday. Showers will be more consistent across eastern areas than the west as moisture is wrapped up on a low-pressure center this weekend. Temperatures will fall behind the front but rise above normal next week. This offers a mixed bag of conditions for the next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will move through the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, but any showers will come in narrow lines and most areas will get missed. Hot temperatures out ahead of the front have been causing stress to any corn or soybeans still looking to fill, while soils remain too dry for many wheat planters to get an early start without irrigation. Cooler temperatures move in behind the front but will not last long as temperatures go back above normal next week. Some showers will return later next week, but are forecast to be isolated, occurring mostly across the north.

TEMPORARILY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A front continues to produce a few bands of showers for southern areas of the Northern Plains on Friday. Corn and soybeans that are still filling could find some use out of any showers. While some cooler air filters in behind the front for a couple of days, it will not last long with temperatures rising again next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

Rains will return to the Delta and continue through the weekend as the next front pulls more moisture northward. Conditions will be tougher for maturing crops and harvest but those looking for some more finishing rains will find some decent conditions. Conditions become much drier next week with rising temperatures.

BRIEFLY COOL IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A cold front brought some limited showers and breezy conditions as well as some colder temperatures to the Canadian Prairies on Thursday. Frosts are not expected but cooler temperatures will relieve any late-planted crops still filling. Temperatures will rise next week, and a return of a more active period is expected, though any showers are likely to be isolated until possibly next weekend. Those looking to harvest should continue to see mostly favorable weather.

SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A stalled front will continue to bring scattered showers to southern Brazil. While soil moisture continues to be good for early corn plantings and establishment, as well as prepping soils for soybean planting. Colder temperatures will move into southern areas this weekend, which would be unfavorable. Maturing wheat could also stand some warmer and drier weather, but conditions are not cooperative right now. Showers may sneak into central portions of the country in the middle of next week, well ahead of the start to the wet season.

FROSTS THREATEN ARGENTINA WHEAT

Cool air moving in behind a cold front may produce some frosts through the weekend. Cool and dry weather continues into next week. Limited rainfall and cold temperatures have been detrimental for wheat development so far this season. More developed wheat would be at risk for damage while corn and soybean planting may be further delayed this spring. A return of more widespread showers and warmer temperatures are forecast late next week.

MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT PLANTING

Cooler temperatures remain in the Black Sea region through most of the next week, reducing stress for corn and sunflowers. Soil moisture in the region is limited in many of the wheat areas, which will need more before winter wheat planting commences. The system that pinwheels through Europe this week will eventually find its way into Ukraine and western Russia this weekend. The slow-moving nature should bring scattered showers to many areas in need.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick