Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong cold front moving through the U.S. and cooler conditions down in South America are the short-term weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

COLD FRONT TO WRAP UP IN MIDWEST

A front will slowly move through the Midwest Friday through the weekend and into next week. A similar situation to the previous front will be possible with limited showers in the west and more consistent ones in the east. This offers a mixed bag of conditions for the next week. Temperatures ahead of the front are rising well above normal but will fall dramatically behind it. The cooler air does not last that long with temperatures rising above normal next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Texas has seen some drought reduction recently, but not across the west where drought has been a struggle all season long. A front will move through the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, but any showers will come in narrow lines and most areas will get missed. Hot temperatures out ahead of the front will cause stress to any corn or soybeans still looking to fill, while soils remain too dry for many wheat planters to get an early start. Cooler temperatures move in behind the front but will not last long as temperatures go back above normal next week.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A front will move through the Northern Plains Thursday and Friday and produce a few bands of showers; but most areas should stay dry. South Dakota looks like it could be the winner out of the event. Corn and soybeans that are still filling could find some use out of any showers. Heat is occurring ahead of the front, which will be stressful, while some cooler air filters in behind it for a couple of days. Cooler temperatures do not last long as readings will rise back above normal next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

Rains will return to the Delta on Friday and continue through the weekend as the next front pulls more moisture northward. Conditions will be tougher for maturing crops and harvest, but those looking for some more finishing rains will find some decent conditions. Conditions become much drier next week with rising temperatures.

BRIEFLY COOL IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A cold front coming through the Canadian Prairies on Thursday is bringing some limited showers and breezy conditions as well as some colder temperatures. Frosts are not expected but the cooler temperatures will relieve any late-planted crops still filling and reduce the dry-down of mature crops.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A stalled front early this week and another coming through Friday will continue to bring scattered showers to southern Brazil. While soil moisture continues to be good for early corn plantings and establishment, as well as prepping soils for soybean planting as well, colder temperatures will move into southern areas this weekend, which would be unfavorable. Maturing wheat could also stand some warmer and drier weather, but conditions are not cooperative right now.

ARGENTINA WHEAT STILL COLD

A cold front moving through Argentina Thursday will bring in another round of cold air, producing some frosts through the weekend. Limited rainfall and cold temperatures have been detrimental for wheat development so far this season. More developed wheat would be at risk for damage, while corn and soybean planting may be further delayed this spring.

MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT PLANTING

Cooler temperatures remain in the Black Sea region through most of the next week, reducing stress for corn and sunflowers. Soil moisture in the region is limited in many of the wheat areas, which will need more before winter wheat planting commences. The system that pinwheels through Europe this week will eventually find its way into Ukraine and western Russia by the weekend. The slow-moving nature should bring scattered showers to many areas in need.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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