Commodities Market Impact Weather

Hot and Dry Next Several Days

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat with limited shower chances for the Corn Belt and cooler conditions down in South America are the short-term weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MIDWEST DRIER FOR A FEW DAYS

Scattered showers moved through the Midwest with a cold front and a system over the weekend. Rains were scattered for most areas, but heavy amounts occurred in spots from southern Illinois up through Ohio. Some areas trying to get a good finishing rain got it, while many others missed out. A few showers remain possible Tuesday, but the area will largely be dry until a front slowly moves through Friday through the weekend and into next week. A similar situation to the previous front will be possible with limited showers in the west and more consistent ones in the east. This offers a mixed bag of conditions for the next 10 days.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers occurred in the Southern Plains over the weekend, mostly across Texas. That state could have seen some drought reduction, but not across the west where drought has been a struggle all season long. A front will move through the region this weekend, but any showers will come in strings and most areas will get missed. Hot temperatures out ahead of the front will cause stress to any corn or soybeans still looking to fill while soils remain too dry for wheat planters to get an early start.

NORTHERN PLAINS WAITING FOR COLD FRONT

Mostly dry weather and above-normal temperatures characterized the long holiday weekend in the Northern Plains. A front will move through Thursday and Friday and may have a few showers, but most areas should stay dry. South Dakota looks like it could be the winner out of the event. Corn and soybeans that are still filling could find some use out of any showers while most areas that still need to harvest wheat should find good conditions. Heat will occur before the front, which will be stressful, while some cooler air filters in behind it for a couple of days.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

Scattered showers developed across the Delta over the weekend, favoring some immature cotton and soybeans. Those looking to get out and harvest had to dodge the rain. Those showers should continue the next couple of days before drying out late this week. Rains will return though this weekend as the next front pulls more moisture northward. Conditions will be tougher for maturing crops.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Mostly dry weather in the Canadian Prairies over the weekend helped with dry-down of crops and continued harvest. A cold front coming through later this week will bring some limited showers and breezy conditions as well as some colder temperatures. Frosts are not expected but will relieve any late-planted crops still filling and reduce the dry-down of mature crops.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A stalled front continued to produce good rains for portions of southern Brazil over the long weekend. That front remains stalled in the region early this week and another will come through later in the week with more showers. While soil moisture continues to be good for early corn plantings and establishment, as well as prepping soils for soybean planting, colder temperatures will move into southern areas this weekend, which would be unfavorable. Maturing wheat could also stand some warmer and drier weather, but conditions are not cooperative right now.

ARGENTINA WHEAT STILL COLD

Cold temperatures produced more frosts and freezes in Argentina over the weekend and another front later this week and weekend will likely do the same. Limited rainfall and cold temperatures have been detrimental for wheat development so far this season. More developed wheat would be at risk for damage while corn and soybean planting may be further delayed this spring.

COOLER FOR THE BLACK SEA

Scattered light showers moved through a lot of the Black Sea region on Saturday, but a lot of areas remained dry this weekend. Cooler temperatures also filled into the region, reducing stress for corn and sunflowers. Soil moisture in the region is limited in many of the wheat areas of the region which will need more before winter wheat planting commences. The system that pinwheels through Europe this week will eventually find its way into Ukraine and western Russia by this weekend. The slow-moving nature should bring scattered showers to many areas in need.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick