Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Late-season showers across much of the central U.S. and a forecast for favorable ripening and harvest conditions during September are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Thursday.

CENTRAL US SHOWERS

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for periods of rain through the central U.S. during the next five days with light to moderate amounts. The widest coverage will be in the Midwest. The rain will offer minimal benefit due to the adverse impact of hot and dry conditions in many areas, notably the western Midwest, earlier this summer.

ACTIVE SOUTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

In the Southern Plains, a weekend system will offer increased shower potential to the dry northern sector. Texas may see scattered showers next week that possibly reinforce the rains of the last few days while the north stays with a drier trend. Temperatures will stay mostly seasonal.

ISOLATED NORTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

Northern Plains corn and soybeans have received useful moisture for filling crops during the past two weeks. Additional showers are indicated to cross the region over the next few days.

HEAVY SOUTHERN DELTA RAIN

Across the Delta, cooler temperatures will persist. The far north will stay mostly dry to finish out the week while showers soak the rest of the region with a threat of flooding. Showers will continue through the weekend, but these will not be as steady or heavy as the activity of the last couple of days.

MOSTLY DRY IN NORTHWEST

The Northwest forecast continues with a mostly dry pattern through the end of the month. Some monsoon showers may come up from the south at times with some heavy rain in higher elevations, but overall the region will be dry. The weekend brings a bit of break from above average temperatures, but hot conditions return next week.

DRY AND WARM IN PRAIRIES

Canadian Prairies crop areas have continued warm temperatures for this time of year. Areas with ample soil moisture continue to find good conditions to finish up filling wheat and canola. Harvest weather is also favorable as that starts up in more widespread areas. There are some shower chances over the coming week, but showers will remain somewhat isolated.

SHOWERS FOR EUROPE

Europe crop areas have periods of light to moderate rain forecast over the next week. The moisture will offer some crop benefit. However, production will be lower than a year ago due to drought with private estimates expecting more than a 15 percent decline in corn production. In addition, river systems with low water levels will need much more precipitation to recover.

MAINLY DRY IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine and Russia have only light rainfall in the seven-day forecast. This combination will favor late wheat harvest but brings concern for moisture for filling row crops. The Russia ag ministry estimates this year's wheat and barley crops to be more than 30% larger than a year ago.

LATE CHINA RAIN

Central China has moderate to locally heavy rain indicated in the seven-day forecast. However, rainfall is arriving too late to offer significant drought easing. Production of wheat and rice is especially at risk for lower totals than a year ago.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RAIN PROSPECT

Moderate to locally heavy rain is in store across eastern Australia crop areas through the next seven days. Rain amounts will be closely tracked for possible flooding and wet-weather stress to developing wheat.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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