DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...120 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...31 ALBANY, WY AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, CA

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT TUESDAY...JACKSON, MS 3.23 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. Progressive shortwaves disrupt this briefly later this week and the weekend, but the ridge west trough east pattern re-establishes next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be above normal north and near normal south. Near normal temperatures next week persist in the South and Central while above normal temperatures set into the Northwest and below normal temperatures arrive in the Northeast. The first of the shortwaves will generate scattered showers for northern states later this week and the last emerges from the Rockies over the weekend and shifts eastward next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions continue to raise concerns for declining soil moisture for corn and soybeans, but recent showers may help corn and soybean filling in places. A front from Canada will bring spotty showers this week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK): A front interacting with the remnants of a tropical-like system has been producing heavy rains in the south and will shift southeastward this week. This week started off dry in the north, but isolated showers will sag southward in the middle of the week. Temperatures mostly stay seasonable.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): This week will be on the drier side but some spotty showers will be moving through. Next week will start with showers, but end mostly

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Cooler temperatures will persist. The far north will stay mostly dry this week while showers soak the rest of the region. Showers are in the forecast for the next several days, but these will not be as steady or heavy as the activity of the last couple of days.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Heat in the region continues for the next several days. Some monsoon showers may come up from the south at times, but overall the region will be drier as well. Stress continues to mount for the end of the growing season for spring wheat while conditions are more favorable for harvest. The weekend brings a bit of break from above average temperatures, but hot conditions return next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Last week the region was teased with some showers, but this week looks to be drier with constrained shower chances at times in southern Brazil.

ARGENTINA (WHEAT): The next several days will be mainly dry, but temperatures gradually warm this week. Another cold front may move in heading into the weekend.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): Temperatures remain fairly warm for this time of year and areas with ample soil moisture continue to find good conditions to finish up filling wheat and canola. Harvest weather is also favorable as that starts up in more widespread areas. There are some shower chances this week, but showers will remain somewhat isolated.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Temperatures are forecast to rise again this week and prospects for showers are sparse.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A drier and warmer week in Ukraine may start to eat at the potential gained earlier in the month for the filling corn and sunflowers. Dryness will favor the remaining wheat harvest. Dry spots scattered in Russia are feeling the stress of the heat and lack of rain.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall, conditions remain favorable for good yields for both winter wheat and canola that are headed toward reproductive stages. The rest of this week trends drier while next week isolated showers pass through some spots.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry to isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to slightly above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Dry northwest and isolated to scattered showers southeast Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south and isolated showers north and mostly dry central. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry northwest and isolated to scattered showers central and southeast Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry northeast and isolated showers southwest Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Friday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry far north and scattered heavy showers central and south.

Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry to isolated showers far north and scattered showers otherwise Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers to mostly dry Friday-Saturday.

Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry north and isolated showers south Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry to isolated showers far southwest. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers far south Friday.

Scattered showers Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal north and below normal south Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Darren Miller can be reached at Darren.Miller@dtn.com

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