Commodities Market Impact Weather

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A return to concern over the impact of hot and dry conditions on crop prospects in the central U.S. along with further indications of reduced crop output in key international areas due to heat and drought are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Tuesday.

DRYNESS CONCERNS RETURN

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for variable rainfall across the Midwest during the next week, with light to moderate totals in eastern sectors and no more than light amounts in western sectors. Corn and soybean conditions declined in the past week despite widespread rainfall. These lower ratings bring renewed concern about production for the 2022 corn and soybean crops.

MIXED SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN OUTLOOK

Southern Plains crop areas continue with a notably mixed rainfall forecast. Over the next seven days. The eastern and southern portions of the region have light to moderate amounts indicated. The western and northern sectors, however, have no more than light amounts forecast. This implies very little soil moisture available when the next winter wheat crop is seeded this fall.

LIGHT NORTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

Northern Plains crop areas have only light rain forecast during the next week. Recent showers have improved soil moisture in eastern areas but not in the western sector of the region. Temperatures will be seasonal to above normal, resulting in net drying across the region.

ADDITIONAL DELTA RAIN

In the Delta, additional rain is indicated over the next several days. Southern sectors have moderate amounts in store with northern areas receiving lighter totals. Showers and thunderstorms may disrupt early row-crop harvest along with causing some potential damage to cotton. Flooding threats are increasing as well with the heavy rainfall.

DRY NORTHWEST TREND

Dry conditions remain in the forecast over the northwestern U.S. This pattern will favor wheat harvest but will be stressful to other crops along with pastures, hay and livestock water supplies.

LIGHT PRAIRIES RAINFALL

Scattered mainly light showers will cover the Canadian Prairies over the next few days along with above normal temperatures. Conditions will be generally favorable for wheat and canola crops along with pastures and hay.

SEASONAL SOUTH AMERICA CONDITIONS

Brazil and Argentina crop areas have generally mild temperatures and light rainfall in store this week. A warming trend is indicated in Argentina during the next ten days.

MAINLY DRY IN EUROPE

Extreme heat and dryness have caused widespread stress to most crop areas of Europe. In addition to crop moisture loss, drought has sapped river levels in many areas. Precipitation outlooks indicate only light showers over the next week.

DRY BLACK SEA FORECAST

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine and Russia will have a mainly warm and dry pattern during the coming week. This will favor the latter stage of wheat harvest but brings concern for moisture for filling row crops.

CHINA DROUGHT CALAMITY

Heat and drought are exhausting crop prospects in central China. Production of wheat and rice is especially at risk for lower totals than a year ago. Recent temperatures topped 114 degrees Fahrenheit. Conditions are so dry that weather modification and cloud seeding have been initiated to try to improve rainfall in the Yangtze River basin. Very little rain is forecast through the end of the summer growing season.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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