Commodities Market Impact Weather

Good Rains Pushing South

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild temperatures and a chance for more precipitation for some drought areas, along with a potential for frost in Brazil are the short-term weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MILD MIDWEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS

Cooler temperatures have filtered into the Midwest and will stick around through the weekend. Temperatures could rise a few degrees next week, but overall it should stay seasonal. Moderate to heavy rain continues in Missouri on Tuesday, offering up good rains for areas in desperate need. An upper-level system will move through later this week and weekend with the best chance at any widespread showers, though there are likely to be areas that miss out on the rains.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WELCOMING COLD FRONT

A cold front sliding south through the Plains this week is bringing some chances for showers and much cooler temperatures. Showers are forecast to be isolated for all but Colorado, but the cooler temperatures will help to ease stress. Heavier rain may be possible next week across the south as a system moves through.

LIMITED RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend and continue to be possible across the Dakotas the next several days, but with little coverage. Temperatures will be mild except in Montana where heat is concerning for immature wheat. Drier conditions continue to raise concerns for declining soil moisture for corn and soybeans.

EASING DROUGHT IN DELTA

A front will move south across the Delta through Thursday with scattered showers and cooler temperatures. The coolness will last quite a while and additional rain will be possible next week as well. Although there is drought in the region, soil moisture is not too bad for filling soybeans and cotton.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST STAYING HOT

Heat in the Pacific Northwest continues for the next couple of weeks. Some monsoon showers may come up from the south at times, but overall, the region will be drier as well. Stress continues to mount for the end of the growing season for spring wheat while conditions are more favorable for harvest.

WARM WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and continue through Thursday, mostly in the east. Temperatures remain fairly warm for this time of year and areas with ample soil moisture continue to find good conditions to finish up filling wheat and canola. Harvest weather is also favorable as that starts up in more widespread areas.

FROST POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

A front will move through Brazil this week, keeping showers active for reproductive wheat but also bringing in much cooler temperatures. There is a risk of frost behind the front Friday and Saturday, which could be damaging to wheat should it occur in any widespread fashion. Showers may also get into central Brazil states, which would welcome any rainfall in advance of soybean planting that starts next month.

ARGENTINA WHEAT STILL COLD AND DRY

A few showers moved through Argentina's southern wheat areas Sunday. That is welcome but the area needs much more rain. That is followed by more cold air, which may produce frosts and continue poor conditions for wheat establishment and development.

RAIN AMONGST HEAT FOR UKRAINE

Scattered showers continue through most of the week in Ukraine, keeping soil moisture favorable for filling corn and sunflowers. Temperatures also remain above normal region wide. In Ukraine, conditions could not be much better for corn and sunflower filling, but dryness would be preferred for the remaining wheat harvest. In Russia, it's quite opposite. Conditions are good for wheat harvest, but dry spots scattered throughout the region are feeling stress of the heat and lack of rain.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE CONTINUES

In Europe, heat from the west is pushing east this week, stressing filling crops. Western areas are getting a needed break in the temperatures as well as getting some showers, though the damage has been done from the heat this summer. Temperatures are forecast to rise again next week as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick