DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge in the West and a trough digging into the East. The trough will continue there through next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, a small disturbance will ride over the western ridge this weekend and expand the trough westward into the Plains next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend, but favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal in the Central and East and above normal in the West. This pattern is likely to hold through next weekend through we could see some warming across the north. A front will continue to be pushed southward through the Plains next week with scattered showers. Additional showers may move through the Midwest in the cool trough.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...115 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW THU...31 AT SAND CREEK STATION, OR

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT THURSDAY...MEMPHIS, TN 1.89 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough digging into the East. The trough will continue there through next week. A small disturbance will ride over the ridge this weekend and expand the trough westward next week while the ridge continues in the West up through central Canada.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal in the Central and East and above normal in the West. This pattern is likely to hold through next weekend though we could see some warming across the north. A front will continue to be pushed southward through the Plains next week with scattered showers. Additional showers may move through the Midwest in the cool trough.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): There is another chance for some isolated showers over the weekend into next week with a couple of small disturbances. These disturbances will keep temperatures cooler across the Dakotas next week while Montana will continue to be hot under the ridge. Soil moisture is starting to run low in a lot of areas, making these rain chances more important for filling corn and soybeans. Showers may disrupt wheat harvest in limited areas.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK): Temperatures will continue to be hot through the weekend. A front looks to bring an extended period of cooler temperatures and potential for moderate rainfall next week, which would reduce stress for filling crops.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Cooler temperatures continue in the east, but western areas will warm up a bit for a couple of days. Scattered showers in Minnesota and Wisconsin will spread to eastern areas over the weekend. Any warmth in the west will become more seasonable next week as an upper-level trough sits over the region. This may bring some additional showers, but models are not very optimistic about anything widespread or heavy.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front brought scattered showers and more seasonable temperatures to the region this week, easing drought stress. More rain and seasonable temperatures will move through next week, helping to keep stress lower.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Heat in the region looks to continue for the next couple of weeks. Some monsoon showers may come up from the south at times but, overall, the region will be drier as well. Stress continues to mount for the end of the growing season for spring wheat while conditions are more favorable for winter wheat harvest.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Another front will move through southern Brazil next week, keeping showers active for reproductive wheat but also bringing in much cooler temperatures. There is a risk of frost behind the front next week, which could be damaging should it occur in any widespread fashion. Showers may also get into central Brazil states, which would welcome any rainfall in advance of soybean planting that starts next month.

ARGENTINA (WHEAT): A few showers may move through wheat areas this weekend but looks to be very light. That is followed by more cold air, which may produce frosts and continue poor conditions for wheat establishment and development.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): A couple of systems are moving through over the next week, bringing spotty precipitation. Southwestern areas could use more precipitation, but time is running out for rain to be helpful as harvest starts up.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Heat across much of the continent the last several weeks has caused widespread stress and damage to summer crops. An upper-level system continues in eastern areas of the continent, keeping temperatures a bit cooler and bring scattered showers through the weekend. The heat is forecast to shift eastward next week while the west gets a much-needed break. Some showers are forecast in western areas next week and models are starting to trend toward heavier showers, which would help ease the stress, though damage has already been done.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Above-normal temperatures will continue into next week, especially in Russia. Some showers remain in Ukraine and are forecast to continue into next week while western Russia stays dry until at least late next week. Soil moisture in the region is good overall and the heat will help to accelerate corn and sunflower filling. There could be some stresses in Russia however, where there are a few more dry pockets.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system is moving through eastern areas with scattered showers into the weekend. More showers are possible next week.

Overall, conditions remain favorable for good yields for both winter wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

East: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers north Sunday-Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday, near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Scattered showers south Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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