Commodities Market Impact Weather

West-to-East Disparity Lasts Into Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat returning to the Plains with cooler temperatures eastward are the short-term weather factors driving the market Wednesday.

MIDWEST COOLER WITH SPOTTY RAINS

A front that has brought fairly widespread moderate rainfall to the Midwest continues right along the Ohio River on Wednesday before pushing southward. Another front will move through the region over the next couple of days as well, reinforcing the cooler temperatures through the weekend in the east, but western areas will warm up a bit. The front will also cause chances for heavy rain in Minnesota and possibly Iowa Thursday and Friday. Another front will move through early next week with more cooler temperatures and chances for showers across the region, reducing stress on drier areas.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS HEATING BACK UP, COOLER NEXT WEEK

A front continues to gradually slide south through the Southern Plains this week, bringing in more seasonable temperatures for a couple of days and scattered showers. Showers are not widespread with limited impact on drought, and temperatures will rise again later this week and weekend. A front looks to bring an extended period of cooler temperatures and moderate rainfall next week, which would reduce stress for filling crops.

HOT WITH LIMITED RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Above-normal temperatures are spreading back into the Northern Plains and should continue through the weekend. Some milder air will move in briefly next week. Heavier rain will be possible Thursday and Friday across the Dakotas. There is another chance for some isolated showers over the weekend into next week as well. Soil moisture is starting to run low in a lot of areas, making these rain chances more important for filling corn and soybeans. Showers may disrupt wheat harvest in limited areas.

FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A front is bringing scattered showers and more seasonable temperatures to the Delta over the next couple of days. Crops in this area are more developed and have been dealing with heat stress all summer. More rain and seasonable temperatures will move through next week, helping to keep stress lower.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST STAYING HOT

Heat in the Pacific Northwest looks to continue for the next couple of weeks. Some monsoon showers may come up from the south at times, but overall the region will be drier as well. Stress continues to mount for the end of the growing season for spring wheat while conditions are more favorable for winter wheat harvest.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES STAYING DRIER

A couple of systems are moving through the Canadian Prairies over the next week but will only offer light precipitation in most cases. Southwestern areas could use more precipitation, but time is running out for rain to be helpful as harvest starts up in more advanced areas.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

A front over southern Brazil continues to bring scattered showers Wednesday, keeping soil moisture high as wheat moves through reproduction. The showers are getting into the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, which could disrupt the remaining corn harvest in these areas.

ARGENTINA WHEAT LACKING SOIL MOISTURE

Dry weather continues in Argentina the rest of this week. A few showers may move through wheat areas this weekend but amounts look to be very light. That is followed by more cold air, with poor conditions continuing for wheat establishment and development.

HEAT BUILDING FOR THE BLACK SEA, RAIN FOR UKRAINE

Above-normal temperatures have moved into the Black Sea region and will build going into next week, especially in Russia. Some showers remain in Ukraine and are now forecast to continue into next week while western Russia stays dry until late next week. Soil moisture in the region is good overall and the heat will help to accelerate corn and sunflower filling. There could be some stresses in Russia however, where there are a few more dry pockets.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE CONTINUES

Heat across much of Europe the last several weeks has caused widespread stress and damage to summer crops. An upper-level system is forming off the tail end of a cold front in eastern areas of the continent. This will keep temperatures a bit cooler and bring scattered showers through the weekend. But across the west, stress will continue through the weekend. The heat is forecast to spread eastward next week as the entire continent may be dealing with the heat next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick