DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

A ridge across the U.S. remains the dominant force for August. There is a disturbance in western Canada that will drag a piece of energy through the northern U.S. this weekend into early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, another disturbance currently in Alaska will send a piece of itself through Canada next week and join up with the other, digging into eastern North America late next week for a couple of days. Another trough pushes through western Canada late next week as well. But through all of this, the ridge will remain intact around the Rockies and Plains.

The U.S. and European models are in pretty good agreement overall, but the American model is anomalous hot in the middle of the country next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European with any differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near normal in the middle of the country and above normal in the West and East. Temperatures will rise across the Central U.S. through the period. A front will continue to sag south through the Southeast in the middle of next week with scattered showers, but it will be dry for much of the rest of the country through the end of next week. Another disturbance moving through Canada could bring a few showers to northern areas next weekend.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...111 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...35 AT YELLOWSTONE NP, WY

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT THURSDAY...ST. LOUIS, MO 3.36 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

A ridge across the U.S. remains the dominant force for August. There is a disturbance in western Canada that will drag a piece of energy through the northern U.S. this weekend into early next week. Another disturbance currently in Alaska will send a piece of itself through Canada next week and join up with the other, digging into eastern North America late next week. Another trough pushes through western Canada late next week as well. But through all of this, the ridge will remain intact around the Rockies and Plains.

The U.S. and European models are in pretty good agreement overall, but the American model is anomalous hot in the middle of the country next week. I will use a blend but favor the European with any differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near normal in the middle of the country and above normal in the West and East. Temperatures will rise across the Central U.S. through the period. A front will continue to sag south through the Southeast in the middle of next week with scattered showers, but it will be dry for much of the rest of the country through the end of next week. Another disturbance moving through Canada could bring a few showers to northern areas next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moving through will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Temperatures will cool below normal for a few days after the front goes through, but temperatures will rise above normal again next week. Dryness follows as well, with another chance for showers with another front next weekend. With limited showers moving through and overall above-normal temperatures, soil moisture is declining for many areas.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK): With a ridge in the region for the next couple of weeks, hotter and drier conditions will be in the background for a while. There will be a front that moves through this weekend into the middle of next week that brings temperatures down a few degrees and offers some limited showers, but the overall hot and dry pattern will be stressful for both plants and animals.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front has stalled out near the Ohio River, with showers continuing through Saturday. Some of these could cause flooding.

Another front will move through this weekend into early next week with more scattered showers and a brief break from the heat. Temperatures increase again later next week, more so for western areas than in the east, where dryness and stress continue to be higher.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Some isolated showers will be in the area through the weekend, but most areas will stay dry. When showers are not around, temperatures will be high, causing more stress. A front will sag through the region next week with scattered showers and another respite from the overall heat that continues to be a concern for the region through August.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): The region could still use some moisture for filling spring wheat, but will not see much in the next couple of weeks. Temperatures will rise again this weekend and the heat will continue through most of next week. Soil moisture continues to decline, causing crop conditions to drop for the rest of the season even though they are mostly excellent currently.

Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front is stalling over southern areas and will bring scattered showers through the middle of next week, keeping soil moisture high as wheat continues to mvoe into reproduction. The showers may get into the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul next week, which could disrupt the remaining corn harvest in these areas.

ARGENTINA (WHEAT): A system brought showers to northern areas this week, but missed the primary wheat areas in the south which are more in need. These southern areas may get some isolated showers over the weekend with a system developing in the region, but many areas are forecast to remain dry.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moving through will bring some cooler temperatures to the region for a few days. Its precipitation is more focused over northern areas but drier conditions are expected through the middle of next week. Another system moves through late next week but this offers better chances for more widespread showers. Between the systems, it will be drier with temperatures rising next week. Outside of the drier areas in the southwest which could use a bit more moisture, conditions are mostly favorable for filling wheat and canola.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Heat across much of the continent this week has caused more stress to summer crops. A cold front moving across northern areas will bring temperatures down for the next few days, but heat could build right back in next week. Heat and a lack of showers will stress corn areas, though wheat will continue to have more favorable harvest conditions.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): An upper-level low is retreating southward into the Black Sea this weekend, putting an end to the showers that continued all week long. A front will move into northwestern areas over the weekend and stall, with limited showers through the front half of next week.

Conditions continue to benefit developing to reproductive corn and sunflowers, but have made it more difficult for wheat harvest. Temperatures are increasing and will remain high through next week in most areas, which will hasten crop development and could turn some areas drier where soil moisture is only marginally favorable. Otherwise, conditions continue to be good for sunflowers and corn and are improving for winter wheat harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moved through much of the country this week with scattered showers and some stronger winds. Periods of showers will linger in the east into the weekend. Another system will move through Australia next week with scattered showers for most crop areas. Scattered showers will benefit wheat and canola, which remain on pace for good yields this season.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday, south Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers north Saturday-Sunday, south Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday, below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers south Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Monday, below normal south and above normal north Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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