Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) --- Though hot and dry conditions are still forecast for August, small disturbances bringing scattered showers and occasionally some cooler air should be on traders' minds Wednesday.

MIDWEST HOTTER BUT WITH RAIN CHANCES

A few fronts will be moving through the Midwest over the next couple of weeks, bringing some showers and thunderstorms through, but likely being widely scattered instead of persistent and widespread. However, some flooding did occur with persistent thunderstorms in Illinois on Tuesday. Outside of that, some areas will receive beneficial precipitation while others will be left out. Out ahead of these fronts and where showers miss, the heat will increase, causing stress.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS HOT, EYEING WEEKEND FRONT

With a ridge in the Plains for the next couple of weeks, hotter and drier conditions will be in the background for a while. However, there will be a couple of fronts that move through that bring temperatures down a few degrees and offer some limited showers, but the overall hot and dry pattern will be stressful for both plants and animals.

LIMITED RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers will continue to move through the Northern Plains for the next couple of weeks while disturbances ride the top of a ridge through Canada. When fronts and showers are not moving through, temperatures will be above normal and stress to crops will be more likely with declining soil moisture.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A stalled front caused widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Delta this past weekend, easing stress from recent hot and dry conditions. Some isolated showers will be in the area through the coming weekend, but most areas will stay dry. When showers are not around, temperatures will be high, causing more stress.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST COOLING OFF TEMPORARILY

Excessive heat is relaxing in the Pacific Northwest for a few days. While temperatures should come back toward normal, precipitation chances are lower than we might expect given the more active storm track. Temperatures will rise again this weekend and the heat will continue through next week. Soil moisture continues to decline, causing crop conditions to drop for the rest of the season even though they are mostly excellent currently. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

STORM TRACK CONTINUING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

With the storm track continuing through the Canadian Prairies for a while, multiple chances for showers and mixed temperatures will be beneficial for filling out wheat and canola.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

A front will bring scattered showers to southern Brazil Thursday through the middle of next week, keeping soil moisture high as wheat continues to develop and approach reproduction. The showers may get into the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, which could disrupt the remaining corn harvest in these areas.

ARGENTINA WHEAT LACKING SOIL MOISTURE

A system will continue to bring showers to northern Argentina on Wednesday but miss the primary wheat areas which are more in need. Southern areas may get some isolated showers over the weekend with a system developing in the region, but many areas are forecast to remain dry.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLACK SEA

An upper-level low has stalled out in the Black Sea region, bringing scattered showers all week long to eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. The showers will continue to benefit developing to reproductive corn and sunflowers but make conditions more difficult for wheat harvest. Where showers do not occur, temperatures will be higher, hastening crop development. The upper low will retreat southward over the weekend, putting an end to the showers. A front will move into northwestern areas over the weekend and stall, with limited showers next week.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE CONTINUES

Heat building up across much of Europe this week is causing more stress to summer crops. A cold front will bring temperatures down for northern areas at the end of the week going into the weekend, but heat could build right back in next week. Heat and a lack of showers will stress some corn areas, though wheat will continue to have more favorable harvest conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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