Commodities Market Impact Weather

Periods of Showers With the Heat

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) --- Though hot and dry conditions are forecast for August, small disturbances bringing scattered showers should be on traders' minds Tuesday.

MIDWEST HOTTER BUT WITH RAIN CHANCES

A few fronts will be moving through the Midwest over the next couple of weeks, bringing some showers and thunderstorms, but likely being widely scattered instead of persistent and widespread. Some areas will receive beneficial precipitation while others will be left out. Out ahead of these fronts and when showers miss, the heat will increase, causing stress.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS HOT, DRY AGAIN

With a ridge in the middle of the U.S. for the next couple of weeks, hotter and drier conditions will be in the background for a while. There will be a couple of fronts that move through that bring temperatures down a few degrees and offer some limited showers, but the overall hot and dry pattern will be stressful for both plants and animals.

HEAT WITH LIMITED RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers will continue to move through the Northern Plains for the next couple of weeks while disturbances ride the top of a ridge through Canada. When fronts and showers are not moving through, temperatures will be above normal and stress to crops will be more likely with declining soil moisture.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A stalled front caused widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Delta this past weekend, easing stress from recent hot and dry conditions. While some showers may be possible throughout the week, it is more likely that the region stays dry. If dryness does occur, heat will increase, causing further stress to the region.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST COOLING OFF TEMPORARILY

Record heat that was in place across the Pacific Northwest since the weekend is relaxing for a few days. While temperatures should come back toward normal, precipitation chances are lower than we might expect given the more active storm track. Temperatures will rise again this weekend and the heat will continue through next week. Soil moisture continues to decline, causing crop conditions to drop for the rest of the season even though they are mostly excellent currently. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

STORM TRACK CONTINUING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

With the storm track continuing through the Canadian Prairies for a while, multiple chances for showers and mixed temperatures will be beneficial for filling out wheat and canola.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

A front will bring scattered showers to southern Brazil Thursday through the middle of next week, keeping soil moisture high as wheat continues to develop and approach reproduction. The showers may get into the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, which could disrupt the remaining corn harvest in these areas.

ARGENTINA WHEAT LACKING SOIL MOISTURE

A system will bring showers to northern Argentina Tuesday and Wednesday but miss the primary wheat areas which are more in need. Southern areas may get another needed drink of water next week with a system developing in the region.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLACK SEA

A system has split with a portion of it stalling out in the Black Sea region, bringing scattered showers all week long to eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. The showers will continue to benefit reproductive to filling corn and sunflowers but make conditions more difficult for wheat harvest. Where showers do not occur, temperatures will be higher, hastening crop development.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE BUILDING THIS WEEK

Heat continues to build across much of Europe this week, though a cold front will bring temperatures down for northern areas at the end of the week going into the weekend. Heat and a lack of showers will stress some corn areas, though wheat will continue to have more favorable harvest conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick