Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heat, Dryness Returning Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Markets are skipping the short-term benefits of cooler temperatures and heavy rainfall in drought areas this week as they look toward a forecast of hot and dry conditions in August during Friday's session.

MIDWEST TURNING HOTTER NEXT WEEK

A front that has brought widespread precipitation over the last week to the Midwest has drifted off to the south but could bring in a few more showers on the southern end of the region through the weekend. Cooler temperatures have arrived as well. However, the coolness will not last long and heat is forecast to build back in next week. Showers will become much more limited as the storm track shifts north into Canada, but chances will remain throughout next week, especially north and east.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS GETTING HOT AND DRY AGAIN

A front continues to push south into Oklahoma on Friday, offering more rainfall and stress reduction to most of the Central and Southern Plains outside of Texas through the weekend. But the relief will not last long as heat builds back in next week with little or no precipitation expected.

HEAT AND LIMITED RAIN NEXT WEEK IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Soil moisture is starting to decline in a lot of the Northern Plains, except where showers have hit more frequently. Wheat is still in good shape, but we are starting to see more stress coming to corn and soybeans. Mild temperatures will rise this weekend and especially next week, producing more stress. Only limited showers will move through the region with the main storm track through Canada.

SHOWERS AND BRIEF HEAT RELIEF FOR DELTA

A front sagging into the Delta is stalling, allowing for several days of beneficial showers through Monday. Any showers would be welcome, but the heat is also relaxing, giving a brief break to stressful conditions. However, temperatures will increase next week while showers get more isolated and a return to stressful conditions will be likely.

HOT AND DRY PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY

Hot and dry conditions will continue in the Pacific Northwest until a trough builds into the region early next week, causing soil moisture to continue to decline. While cooler temperatures are forecast to move into the region, rain showers with the trough will be minimal. Crop conditions continue on more of a downward trajectory for the end of the season, though crop conditions continue to be mostly excellent. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

STORM TRACK RETURNING TO CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Canadian Prairies with a few exceptions. The pattern looks to get more active this weekend and next week as the storm track returns to bring several disturbances with scattered showers back through, favoring wheat and canola filling.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both remaining corn harvest and wheat development in Brazil. A front is bringing showers through southern areas Friday, favoring wheat. Another front may do the same late next week as well.

ARGENTINA WHEAT NEEDS MORE RAIN

A slow-developing system brought scattered showers to much of Argentina this week. Scattered showers moving over wheat areas have been helpful, but more are needed to reduce drought stress for wheat establishment. A system will bring showers to northern areas in the middle of next week but miss the primary wheat areas which are more in need.

SOME RAIN CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers have been present for about a week in the Black Sea region, favoring reproductive corn and sunflowers, but limiting wheat harvest. Temperatures are forecast to rise above normal next week, with precipitation right around the Black Sea. That could start to dry soils out a bit more for the start of the August fill period, but improve conditions for some of the wheat harvest.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE EXPANDING NORTH NEXT WEEK

Heat and dryness continue for the southern half of Europe. After another weak disturbance passes through the continent Friday and Saturday with scattered showers in eastern areas, heat looks like it will build back up north for a few days next week. Showers will be limited as a front moves through northern areas to wipe out the heat. Heat and a lack of showers will stress some corn areas, though wheat will likely enjoy more favorable harvest conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick