Commodities Market Impact Weather

Eyes Caught Between Short-Term Benefits, Long-Term Weather Forecast

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Markets are weighing short-term benefits of cooler temperatures and heavy rainfall this week against an outlook for hot and dry conditions for August on Wednesday.

HEAVY SOUTHERN MIDWEST RAIN CONTINUES

Scattered showers have moved through most of the Midwest over the last few days with heavy rain in the south. The front remains active across the south and will be met by a second one moving across the region Wednesday and Thursday. The combined fronts will bring scattered showers and they could be very helpful for some of the drier areas scattered around the region. The fronts have also brought in much cooler temperatures. However, the coolness will not last long and heat is forecast to build back in next week. Showers will become much more limited as the storm track shifts north into Canada.

BRIEF RELIEF TO MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Two fronts moving south through the Plains are combining over the next couple of days, bringing cooler temperatures to most of the region outside of Texas. Both are bringing periods of showers to drought areas. The second front will stall across Oklahoma later this week, offering stress reduction to most of the region. But it will not last long as heat builds back in next week with little or no precipitation.

HEAT RETURNING TO NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

Isolated showers moved through the Northern Plains along a cold front Monday and Tuesday, but the region will be drier for the rest of the week. Soil moisture is starting to decline in a lot of the region, except where showers have hit more frequently. Wheat is still in good shape, but we are starting to see more stress coming to corn and soybean crops. Cooler temperatures will be around most of the week, but will rise this weekend and especially next week, producing more stress. Only limited showers will move through the region with the main storm track through Canada.

SHOWERS AND HEAT RELIEF COMING TO DELTA

A front will sag south into the Delta Thursday and Friday and stall, allowing for several days of showers going through the weekend. Any showers would be welcome, but the heat will also relax as the front moves in, giving a brief break as well. However, temperatures will increase next week while showers get more isolated and a return to stressful conditions will be likely.

HOT AND DRY PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Soil moisture continues to decline in the Pacific Northwest due to heat and a lack of rainfall recently. Heat and dryness continue to be the theme all week long, waiting for a trough to build into the region next week to bring the potential for some showers and cooler temperatures. Crop conditions continue on more of a downward trajectory for the end of the season. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Canadian Prairies. While the rest of the week will be much drier across the region, the pattern looks to get more active this weekend and next week as the storm track returns to bring several disturbances with scattered showers back through.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both remaining corn harvest and wheat development in Brazil. A system building in Argentina will bring its front through southern areas Thursday and Friday with some scattered showers, favoring wheat. Another front may do the same late next week as well.

SHOWERS DRYING UP FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

A slow-developing system will bring scattered showers to much of Argentina through Thursday before the front to the system shifts north. Scattered showers moving over wheat areas are helpful, but more are needed to reduce drought stress for wheat establishment. This part of the country turns drier for the rest of the week and likely through next week as well, with a system forming off to the north with scattered showers in the middle of next week.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers have been present in the Black Sea region for about a week, favoring reproductive corn and sunflowers, and perhaps limiting some wheat harvest. Temperatures are forecast to rise well above normal next week, with more limited precipitation. That could start to dry soils out a bit more for the start of the August fill period.

HEATWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN EUROPE

A front moving across northern Europe will not make it very far south and heat and dryness are expected to continue for the southern half of the continent this week. After another weak disturbance passes through the continent Friday and Saturday with scattered showers more for eastern areas, heat looks like it could build back up north yet again going into next week. Heat and a lack of showers will stress some corn areas, though wheat will likely enjoy more favorable harvest conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick