DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A large ridge in the U.S. is splitting into two pieces with one shifting into the Southeast and the other strengthening along the West Coast. This will force a piece of a trough in Alaska to move south into the Central U.S. this week but will not stay long.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

In the 6- to 10-day period, the western ridge will start to overspread the country and Canada again over the weekend and sit in the Central U.S. by the middle of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in pretty good agreement overall. I will use a blend but favor the European with any differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal across the middle of the country with heat in the West and in the East. Temperatures will rise next week as the ridge envelops most of the country.

Cooler temperatures may move into the Pacific Northwest, however. A stalled and lingering front will keep showers going from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend into early next week. Small disturbances moving over the top of the ridge will create some isolated showers for the northern Corn Belt, but mostly in the Canadian Prairies.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...119 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...29 AT MACKAY ID

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT SUNDAY...COLUMBIA, SC 1.60 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

A large ridge in the U.S. is splitting into two pieces with one shifting into the Southeast and the other strengthening along the West Coast. This will force a piece of a trough in Alaska to move south into the Central U.S. this week but will not stay long. The western ridge will start to overspread the country and Canada again over the weekend and sit in the Central U.S. by the middle of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in pretty good agreement overall. I will use a blend but favor the European with any differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal across the middle of the country with heat in the West and in the East. Temperatures will rise next week as the ridge envelops most of the country.

Cooler temperatures may move into the Pacific Northwest, however. A stalled and lingering front will keep showers going from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend into early next week. Small disturbances moving over the top of the ridge will create some isolated showers for the northern Corn Belt, but mostly in the Canadian Prairies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A couple of strings of moderate showers moved through over the weekend, but many areas remained dry.

More showers are moving through ahead of and along another cold front moving into the region Monday and Tuesday, but the region will be a bit drier for the rest of the week. Soil moisture is starting to decline in a lot of the region, except where showers are hitting more frequently. Wheat is still in good shape, but we are starting to see more stress coming to corn and soybean crops. Cooler temperatures will be around most of the week, but we will see that increasing this weekend and especially next week, producing more stress.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK): Some showers went through over the weekend but were spotty where they hit. Two fronts moving south through the region this week will be bringing cooler temperatures to most of the region outside of Texas. The second front will stall across the south with periods of showers later this week, however, offering stress reduction to most of the region. But it will not last long as heat builds back in next week.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and plenty of severe weather moved through the region over the weekend. Some areas of crop damage were likely to have occurred but were probably isolated. The front from the weekend continues to slowly sag south across the region through Tuesday and will be followed by another Wednesday and Thursday. The fronts will bring scattered showers and they could be very helpful for some of the drier areas scattered around the region. The fronts will also bring in much cooler temperatures. However, the coolness will not last long and heat is forecast to build back in next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Isolated showers fell across southern areas of the weekend, but most areas were hot and dry, stressing soybeans and cotton. A front will sag south into the region later in the week and stall out, allowing for several days of showers going through the weekend. Any showers would be welcome, but the heat will also relax as the front moves in, giving a brief break as well. However, temperatures will increase next week while showers get more isolated and a return to stressful conditions will be possible.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Soil moisture continues to decline in the region due to heat and a lack of rainfall recently. Heat and dryness will be the theme all week long, waiting for a trough to build into the region sometime next week to bring the potential for some showers and cooler temperatures. Crop conditions continue on more of a downward trajectory for the end of the season. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Favorable weather continues for both remaining corn harvest and wheat development. A system building in Argentina will bring its front through the region later this week with some scattered showers, favoring wheat.

ARGENTINA (WHEAT): A slow-developing system will bring scattered showers to much of the country through Thursday before the front to the system shifts north. Scattered showers moving over wheat areas will be helpful, but more are needed to reduce drought stress for wheat establishment.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the region. A few showers went through over the weekend, but many areas remained dry. Another front moving through on Monday will bring chances for more showers but also much cooler temperatures, which will reduce stress for any of those drier areas. The pattern looks to get more active this weekend and next week as the storm track returns to the region.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Heat remained across southern areas of the continent over the weekend while some showers moved across northern areas. Another burst of heat was building north on Sunday but will be pushed aside by another system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday. The front will not make it very far south and heat and dryness are expected to continue for the southern half of the continent this week. After another weak disturbance passes through northern areas this weekend, heat looks like it could build back up north yet again.

Heat and a lack of showers will stress some corn areas, though wheat will likely enjoy more favorable harvest conditions.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Scattered showers continued over the weekend, favoring reproductive corn and sunflowers, and perhaps limiting some wheat harvest. While temperatures will increase a little this week, showers are forecast to remain in the region, maintaining mostly good conditions for corn and sunflowers.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved across western and southern areas over the weekend. The showers coming to the southeast are very welcome, though soil moisture is still mostly favorable across the country.

After a system exits Monday, the country will be a bit drier, but conditions are still mostly favorable for a good wheat and canola crop this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

East: Scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday.

Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, below normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal south and above normal north Friday.

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