Commodities Market Impact Weather

Brief Break From Heat, Dryness

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cooler temperatures and increased rainfall for drought areas in the Plains and Canadian Prairies are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

COOLER AND WETTER MIDWEST

Scattered showers and plenty of severe weather moved through the Midwest over the weekend. Some areas of crop damage were likely but were probably isolated. The front from the weekend continues to slowly sag south across the region through Tuesday and will be followed by another Wednesday and Thursday. The fronts will bring scattered showers and they could be very helpful for some of the drier areas scattered around the region. The fronts will also bring in much cooler temperatures. However, the coolness will not last long and heat is forecast to build back in next week.

BRIEF RELIEF TO MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some showers went through the Central Plains over the weekend but were spotty. Two fronts moving south through the region this week will bring cooler temperatures to most of the region outside of Texas. The second front will stall across the south with periods of showers later this week, however, offering stress reduction to most of the region. But it will not last long as heat builds back in next week.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A couple of strings of moderate showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but many areas remained dry. More showers are moving through ahead of and along another cold front moving into the region Monday and Tuesday, but the region will be a bit drier for the rest of the week. Soil moisture is starting to decline in a lot of the region, except where showers are hitting more frequently. Wheat is still in good shape, but we are starting to see more stress coming to corn and soybean crops. Cooler temperatures will be around most of the week, but we will see that increasing this weekend and especially next week, producing more stress.

SHOWERS AND HEAT RELIEF COMING TO DELTA

Isolated showers fell across southern areas of the Delta this weekend, but most areas were hot and dry, stressing soybeans and cotton. A front will sag south into the region later in the week and stall out, allowing for several days of showers going through the weekend. Any showers would be welcome, but the heat will also relax as the front moves in, giving a brief break as well. However, temperatures will increase next week while showers get more isolated and a return to stressful conditions will be possible.

HOT AND DRY PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Soil moisture continues to decline in the Pacific Northwest due to heat and a lack of rainfall recently. Heat and dryness will be the theme all week long, waiting for a trough to build into the region sometime next week to bring the potential for some showers and cooler temperatures. Crop conditions continue on more of a downward trajectory for the end of the season. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Canadian Prairies. A few showers went through over the weekend, but many areas remained dry. Another front moving through Monday will bring chances for more showers but also much cooler temperatures, which will reduce stress for any of those drier areas. The pattern looks to get more active this weekend and next week as the storm track returns to the region.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both remaining corn harvest and wheat development in Brazil. A system building in Argentina will bring its front through the region later this week with some scattered showers, favoring wheat.

SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

A slow-developing system will bring scattered showers to much of Argentina through Thursday before the front to the system shifts north. Scattered showers moving over wheat areas will be helpful, but more are needed to reduce drought stress for wheat establishment.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers continued over the Black Sea region this weekend, favoring reproductive corn and sunflowers, and perhaps limiting some wheat harvest. While temperatures will increase a little this week, showers are forecast to remain in the region, maintaining mostly good conditions for corn and sunflowers.

HEATWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN EUROPE

Heat remained across southern areas of Europe over the weekend while some showers moved across northern areas. Another burst of heat was building north on Sunday but will be pushed aside by another system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday. The front will not make it very far south and heat and dryness are expected to continue for the southern half of the continent this week. After another weak disturbance passes through northern areas this weekend, heat looks like it could build back up north yet again. Heat and a lack of showers will stress some corn areas, though wheat will likely enjoy more favorable harvest conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick