Commodities Market Impact Weather

Beneficial Weather Coming Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cooler temperatures and increased chances for widespread rain moving back into central North America next week and an ongoing heatwave in Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOR MIDWEST

Some isolated showers will pop up in the Midwest on Friday, but most areas will remain dry to finish out the week. More scattered showers are expected with a system this weekend that could involve severe thunderstorms, especially in the Upper Midwest. Although the showers will likely miss some areas, they will be favorable and bring temperatures down a bit. Another cold front will sweep through the region in the middle of next week, providing more showers and cooler temperatures to reduce stress for areas that have been too dry. This will favor both corn and soybeans.

FRONTS BRINGING RELIEF TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers may pop up at times on Friday, but more organized showers are expected across Central Plains this weekend as a cold front settles into Nebraska and northern Kansas. Another front will move through the region mid-late next week with another round of showers, but this front could penetrate farther south, bringing cooler temperatures along with it. Both an increase in showers and reduction in heat would provide some relief to crops in reproduction, especially corn.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers will move through portions of the Northern Plains over the weekend as a system moves through. Temperatures will fall below normal and another front moving through early next week will support cooler temperatures in the region along with another round of showers. Overall, the milder temperatures and periods of showers will be favorable for all crops, limiting the reduction in soil moisture.

SHORT-TERM HEAT AND DRYNESS CONTINUING FOR DELTA

Some spotty showers remain possible in the Delta over the next several days, mostly toward the south. But when showers do not occur, temperatures will be very high, stressing soybeans and cotton. A front is forecast to settle into the area next week and if it does, would bring more seasonable temperatures and rounds of showers that would be beneficial, especially to drought areas in the north.

HOT AND DRY FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Soil moisture continues to decline in portions of the Pacific Northwest due to heat and a lack of rainfall recently, especially in Idaho. No significant showers are forecast for the next couple of weeks and heat will be in place more often than not, putting crop conditions on more of a downward trajectory for the end of the season. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Canadian Prairies. Another system will move across the region into Saturday with a few showers, but a stronger system is forecast to move through Sunday into early next week with more showers and cooler temperatures. Temperatures would be better if they were higher. But overall, crop development continues to be favorable for the rest of the season.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both remaining corn harvest and wheat development in Brazil. More showers are expected in the south for vegetative spring wheat early week. While showers should dry up later in the week, soil moisture is in very good shape and temperatures will be well above normal, helping wheat develop faster as well.

SHOWERS COMING FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Waves of colder temperatures and limited showers have had a significantly negative impact on winter wheat establishment in southern Argentina this winter while the window for planting has largely closed. Dry conditions continue this week with above-normal temperatures, stressing the dry areas. A slow-developing system Sunday through next week will bring scattered showers through the area, which will be very helpful for wheat establishment.

WARMER NEXT WEEK IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers have occurred in the Black Sea Region this week and continue into the weekend, passing over some of the drier areas in southern Russia as well. Temperatures will continue to be milder, so drier areas should not feel as much stress. Temperatures will increase next week, but recent model runs keep the showers going. This combination would be more favorable for corn and sunflower development, while showers could have some delay on winter wheat harvest.

HEATWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS EUROPE

A ridge is bringing intense heat across Europe this week. While showers have moved across northern areas and temperatures have been lowered a bit there, it remains hot across the south and southeast. The showers in the north are bringing at least some relief, but areas that get missed will see more stress developing for spring grains and corn. The heat will continue in waves through next week, expanding back north at times as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick