Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cooler temperatures moving back into central North America next week and an ongoing heatwave in Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Wednesday.

INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOR MIDWEST

A system will bring scattered showers to eastern areas of the Midwest on Wednesday followed by a couple of mostly dry days to finish out the week. More scattered showers are expected with a system this weekend and, although the showers will likely miss some areas, they will be favorable and bring temperatures down a bit. Another cold front will sweep through the region in the middle of next week, providing more showers and cooler temperatures to reduce stress for areas that have been too dry. Conditions will be a little more favorable than previously thought for corn and soybeans.

HEAT RELIEF COMING TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Outside of some stray showers occurring at times in the Southern Plains for the next few days, the next organized shower event comes this weekend across the north as a cold front settles into Nebraska and northern Kansas. Another front will move through the region next week with another round of showers, but this front could penetrate farther south, bringing cooler temperatures along with it. Both an increase in showers and reduction in heat would provide some relief to crops in reproduction, especially to corn.

FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers fell near the Canadian border in the Northern Plains this week as a potent system moved through. Outside of some stray showers, the next organized system moves through this weekend. That system will send temperatures below normal and another front moving through early next week will support cooler temperatures in the region along with another round of showers. Overall, the milder temperatures and periods of showers will be favorable for all crops, limiting the reduction in soil moisture.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH HEAT FOR DELTA

A few showers fell over the last couple of days in the Delta, but most areas remained dry. Some spotty showers remain possible over the next several days, mostly toward the south. But when showers do not occur, temperatures will be very high, stressing soybeans and cotton. A front is forecast to settle into the area next week and if it does, would bring more seasonable temperatures and rounds of showers that would be beneficial.

HOT AND DRY FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Soil moisture continues to decline in portions of the Pacific Northwest due to heat and a lack of rainfall recently, especially in Idaho. No significant showers are forecast for the next couple of weeks and heat will be in place more often than not, putting crop conditions on more of a downward trajectory for the end of the season. Conditions will be favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system brought fairly widespread moderate to heavy rain to a lot of areas of the Canadian Prairies over the last couple of days, including areas in the southwest that have been drier, favoring crop development there. Another system will move through Thursday night into Saturday morning with a few showers, but a stronger system is forecast to move through Sunday into early next week with more showers and cooler temperatures. Temperatures would be better if they were higher but will reduce stress in areas that are drier yet. The showers will be more advantageous to crop development and the picture is for continued good crop conditions for the rest of the season.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both remaining corn harvest and wheat development in Brazil. More showers are expected in the south for vegetative spring wheat early this week. While showers should dry up later in the week, soil moisture is in very good shape and temperatures will be well above normal, helping wheat develop faster as well.

SHOWERS COMING FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Waves of colder temperatures and limited showers have had a significantly negative impact on winter wheat establishment in southern Argentina this winter while the window for planting has largely closed. Dry conditions continue this week as temperatures increase, stressing the dry areas. Scattered showers are forecast to occur with a system next week and are going to be helpful.

WARMER NEXT WEEK IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers continue at times in the Black Sea region through the week. Temperatures will continue to be milder so drier areas should not feel as much stress. Temperatures will increase next week though, and showers will turn isolated or absent, which could affect corn and sunflowers as they continue to go through reproductive stages of development.

HEATWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS EUROPE

A ridge is bringing intense, record-breaking heat across Europe this week. While the northern edge of it will remain active with a couple of storm systems moving through, showers will be limited. Areas that get missed will see more stress developing for spring grains and corn. Cooler temperatures will follow the heat across the north, but areas across the south will see heat continuing in waves through next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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