Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heat, Limited Showers Moving Forward

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat spreading through most of the U.S. with limited showers for the Corn Belt and overall favorable conditions in the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

LIMITED SHOWERS AHEAD OF HEAT FOR MIDWEST

Isolated showers moved through the Midwest this week with a front, but most areas stayed dry outside of the Great Lakes as soil moisture declines during pollination for corn. Another front moves through with limited showers Friday through the weekend. But showers should be streaky, leaving many areas dry. Hotter temperatures will also spread through the region, adding to stress as soil moisture declines during pollination.

HEAT STRESS INCREASING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heat is returning to the Central and Southern Plains and hotter and drier conditions are expected for the rest of the month. A few fronts may come through with isolated showers, but most areas are likely to remain dry, with stress increasing for crops and livestock.

LIMITED SHOWERS AHEAD OF HEAT FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Warmer temperatures moving back into the Northern Plains will likely last the rest of the month with only brief reprieves due to fronts moving through with showers. Most areas have good soil moisture so far this summer but chances for precipitation are becoming more frequent north of the border than through the region. Still, there will be occasional areas of precipitation at times, just not everywhere.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A front stalled in the Delta is producing a few showers for the next couple of days. Another front will likely do the same Sunday into early next week. However, dryness, drought, and declining soil moisture continue to be issues for the region.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Soil moisture is declining in portions of the Pacific Northwest due to heat and a lack of rainfall recently. No significant showers are forecast for the next couple of weeks. Crop conditions should be on more of a downward trajectory over the next few weeks, though prospects are much improved over last year.

SHOWERS OVERSPREADING CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The storm track remains through the Canadian Prairies for the next few weeks, giving the area opportunities for more showers as fronts and systems move through. Overall, warmer temperatures are also expected. Where soil moisture is ample, the heat will make for some good crop growth. More limited areas, especially in southwestern Saskatchewan, could use some more moisture. A stronger storm may track through southern areas early next week, which would bring the needed moisture to southern areas.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both corn harvest and wheat development in Brazil. Periods of showers will move through the south as a front moves back and forth across the region going into next week, favoring vegetative wheat.

COLD AND DRY FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Waves of colder temperatures and limited showers continue to have a negative impact on winter wheat establishment in southern Argentina. Some spotty showers will be possible Thursday and Friday with a stronger system, but overall the system is likely to miss the region again.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA

An upper-level low continues to bring occasional showers to the Black Sea region through the weekend. The conditions may hamper winter wheat harvest, where war is not getting in the way. Temperatures stay mostly below normal through most of next week, but the conditions will be much more favorable for corn and sunflowers as they continue to develop, especially in Ukraine.

MOISTURE DECLINING, HEAT INCREASING IN EUROPE

Cooler temperatures and more showers in eastern Europe offer a reduction in stress that had built up from a strong heatwave in June. Showers will continue around an upper-level low through the weekend but have turned spotty. In the west, heat and dryness continue to cause concerns for corn and other summer crops, including Spain and Italy to the south. Heat will spread into eastern areas of the continent next week, causing more stress.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick