Commodities Market Impact Weather

Limited Showers, Heat Increasing

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat spreading through the bulk of the United States later this week and overall favorable conditions in the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors holding the market's attention on Tuesday.

LIMITED SHOWERS AHEAD OF HEAT FOR MIDWEST

A front sagging through the Midwest this week will only provide isolated shower chances. Another front moves through with limited showers this weekend. But again, showers will be streaky, leaving many areas dry. Hotter weather will also spread through the region, adding to stress as soil moisture declines.

HEAT STRESS INCREASING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Hot weather and spotty showers moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. Cooler conditions will move into the region for a few days as a cold front brings a few isolated showers through, but heat will return by the end of the week and hotter and drier conditions are expected for the rest of the month.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A front sagging through the Delta will stall and produce a few showers this week. Another front will likely do the same this weekend. However, dryness, drought, and declining soil moisture continue to be issues for the region.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING IN THE PNW

Soil moisture continues to be favorable for most of the Pacific Northwest, though it is declining in Idaho. However, no significant showers are forecast for the next two weeks. Crop conditions should be on more of a downward trajectory during the next few weeks, though prospects are much improved over last year.

LIMITED SHOWERS AHEAD OF HEAT FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

After a brief cooldown in the Northern Plains early this week, warmer weather will move back into the region late this week, with heat likely lasting the rest of the month. Most areas have good soil moisture so far this summer, but chances for precipitation are becoming more frequent north of the border than through the region.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies will be a little quieter this week, though the storm track remains through the region, giving the area opportunities for more showers. Overall, warmer weather is also expected. Where soil moisture is ample, the heat will make for some good crop growth. More limited areas, especially in southwestern Saskatchewan, could use some more moisture.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both corn harvest and wheat development overall in Brazil. Periods of showers will move through Rio Grande do Sul this week, favorable for wheat, though temperatures will waffle above and below normal.

COLD AND DRY FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Waves of lower temperatures and limited showers continue to have a negative impact on winter wheat establishment in southern Argentina. Some spotty showers will be possible late this week and weekend with a stronger system, but may be in the form of snow with the cold that moves in with it.

RELIEF FOR BLACK SEA

An upper-level low moved into the Black Sea region during the weekend, bringing a reduction in temperatures and scattered showers. That will continue through the majority of the week. The conditions may hamper winter wheat harvest, where war is not getting in the way. But the conditions will be much more favorable for corn and sunflowers as they continue to develop, especially in Ukraine.

EUROPE SEEING MOISTURE DECLINES

Cooler weather and more showers moved into eastern areas of Europe and offered a reduction in stress that built up from a strong heatwave in June. Showers could bring some harvest challenges as they pinwheel around an upper-level low through the week. In the west, heat and dryness continue to cause concerns for corn and other summer crops, including Spain and Italy to the south.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick