Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat coming to the bulk of the U.S. later this week and overall favorable conditions in the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

LIMITED SHOWERS AHEAD OF HEAT FOR MIDWEST

Spotty showers went through the Midwest over the weekend, but many areas were missed. Even with decent showers in some areas over the last week, dryness and drought continue to build in sections of the region. A front sagging through the region this week will only provide isolated shower chances. Another front moves through with limited showers this coming weekend. But again, showers will be streaky, leaving many areas dry. Hotter temperatures will also spread through the region between fronts, adding to some stresses throughout the region.

HEAT STRESS INCREASING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Hot temperatures and spotty showers moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. Cooler temperatures will move into the region for a few days as a cold front brings a few isolated showers through, but heat will return by the end of the week and hotter and drier conditions are expected for the rest of the month.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

Spotty showers moved through some areas of the Delta over the weekend, but also brought some strong wind gusts in a few places. A front sagging through the region will produce a few showers later this week. And it's possible the stalling front could produce additional showers. However, dryness, drought, and declining soil moisture continue to be issues for the region.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Soil moisture continues to be favorable for most of the Pacific Northwest, though it is declining in Idaho. However, no significant showers are forecast for the next couple of weeks. Crop conditions should be on more of a downward trajectory over the next few weeks, though prospects are much improved over last year.

LIMITED SHOWERS AHEAD OF HEAT FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend, which brought strong wind gusts, but some areas were missed. After a brief cooldown early this week, warmer temperatures will move back into the region by the weekend, with heat likely lasting the rest of the month. Most areas have good soil moisture so far this summer but chances for precipitation are becoming more frequent north of the border than through the region.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but also came with some severe weather that may have caused some damage in a few spots. The region will be a little quieter this week, though the storm track remains through the region, giving the area opportunities for more showers. Overall, warmer temperatures are also expected. Where soil moisture is ample, the heat will make for some good crop growth. More limited areas, especially in southwestern Saskatchewan, could use some more moisture.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both corn harvest and wheat development overall in Brazil. Periods of showers will move through Rio Grande do Sul this week, favoring vegetative wheat, though temperatures will waffle above and below normal.

COLD AND DRY FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Waves of colder temperatures and limited showers continue to have a negative impact on winter wheat establishment in southern Argentina. Some spotty showers will be possible late this week and weekend with a stronger system, but may be in the form of snow with the cold that moves in with it.

RELIEF FOR BLACK SEA

An upper-level low moved into the Black Sea region over the weekend, bringing a reduction in temperatures and scattered showers. That will continue through the majority of the week. The conditions may hamper winter wheat harvest, where war is not getting in the way. But the conditions will be much more favorable for corn and sunflowers as showers continue to develop, especially in Ukraine.

EUROPE SEEING MOISTURE DECLINES

Cooler temperatures and more showers moved into eastern areas of Europe and offered a reduction in stress that built up from a strong heatwave in June. Showers could bring some harvest challenges as they pinwheel around an upper-level low through the week. In the west, heat and dryness continue to cause concerns for corn and other summer crops, including Spain and Italy to the south.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.