Commodities Market Impact Weather

Warmer, Drier Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A warmer and drier forecast for central U.S. crop areas and dry conditions in Europe along with Argentina are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Friday.

SCATTERED MIDWEST RAINFALL

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for showers in the Midwest on Friday to migrate southward out of the region early in the weekend. Showers that occur will be streaky, hitting some areas and missing others. Recent rains have put some dents in the dry spots, but pockets remain. Heat returns late next week, which will again lead to pockets of dryness and flash drought conditions.

BRIEF SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

Western and some northern areas of the central and Southern Plains had rainfall Thursday. A front gradually shifts southward over the weekend. The showers and cooler temperatures were beneficial for growth for corn and soybeans but have some negative effects on wheat harvest. Another front next week will help ease stress briefly, but heat and stress return by late next week.

IMPROVED NORTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

Showers and mild temperatures over the Northern Plains during the coming weekend should keep soil moisture favorable for most of the region while favoring crop growth as well. Next week warmer and drier conditions move in.

PROMISING DELTA RAIN FORECAST

In the Delta, a storm-producing cool front is expected to locate over the region during this weekend. This front offers the prospect of some meaningful showers and precipitation, along with more seasonal temperatures. Crops have been stressed by hot and dry conditions during the first part of July.

BENEFICIAL NORTHWEST TREND

The northwestern U.S. has good soil moisture and warm temperatures to favor the late stages of the winter wheat crop. Expectations are for a much larger harvest in 2022 compared with last year's drought-affected short crop.

WEEKEND PRAIRIES SHOWERS

Disturbances this weekend will keep shower chances active for a few more days in the Canadian Prairies. Conditions will continue to be mixed for a few more days, favoring the west over the east, including with temperatures. Warmer and drier conditions build in next week, especially in the south.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL HARVEST PATTERN

In Brazil, favorable weather continues for both corn harvest and wheat development overall. Periods of showers will move through Rio Grande do Sul next week. Dryness continues farther north but the area will see some showers next week. Even with the showers some wheat in other states could see some stress developing.

CONTINUED ARGENTINA DRYNESS

Dry conditions continue in Argentina wheat regions in the south, unfavorable for establishment. A few showers may move through at times, but amounts are likely to be very low and soil moisture continues to slowly decline.

EUROPE DRYNESS CONCERN

Across Europe, dry soils are becoming worrisome for summer crops. In eastern Europe, showers and more normal temperatures over the next days offer a break from the stress. These showers in eastern Europe the next few days may interrupt harvest of winter wheat and other winter grains. Long-term dryness is still a concern across the west as precipitation looks to be sparse or nonexistent next week. Farther south, Spain and Italy remain too hot and dry for summer crops nearing reproduction.

HOTTER AND DRIER IN BLACK SEA REGION

Showers in the Black Sea region are becoming very isolated and the hotter and drier conditions are causing more concerns for corn and sunflowers. The weather will be more favorable for maturing winter wheat and harvest, however, as that starts up soon. A system for the upcoming weekend looks to provide showers and a temporary break in the heat, but the benefits may be limited.

FAVORABLE AUSTRALIA CONDITIONS

Despite some recent dryness, Australia's growing regions are still on track for an excellent wheat and canola crop this season. After the rain last week, the northeast will see mainly dry conditions for the next several days. The weekend and parts of next week will see frontal systems bring scattered to isolated showers to the southwest and southeast.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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