Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heat Relief Coming, But Showers Are Not

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Increasing dryness and drought in the U.S., improved conditions in the Canadian Prairies, and a heatwave for eastern Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

DRYNESS INCREASING IN MIDWEST

A strong cold front will move through the Midwest this weekend. Another will move into the region early next week and stall. Both will bring lower temperatures and a few rounds of showers. Scattered showers will be hit-or-miss, helping some areas maintain decent soil moisture while the recent heat has been taking away soil moisture elsewhere. Some areas are starting to show significant deficits and need a good soaking.

FRONT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heat continues for the next few days in the Central and Southern Plains before a stronger front pushes through the region this weekend, making it down to south Texas by early next week. That could bring more showers and lower temperatures through the region for a few days. Any showers or cooler temperatures would be beneficial for growth for corn and soybeans but have some negative effect on wheat harvest.

HEAT RETURNING TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Heat is starting to develop in the Pacific Northwest, which continues through most of next week, hastening crop development where it has been a bit behind. With good soil moisture in the region, the higher temperatures will be welcome. The heat could melt snowpack in the mountains a little more effectively, which could cause some flooding.

IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

The next front moves through the Northern Plains late Thursday and Friday, bringing temperatures back down again with more areas of showers. Another front will move through early next week and will stall close to the region with potential for a few more showers. Showers are not consistent across the region, leaving some areas drier, even though showers are moving through every couple of days. There is plenty of soil moisture across most of the region for good plant growth.

HOT AND DRY FOR DELTA

Outside of a spotty shower here or there, heat and dryness continue for the Delta the next few days. A stronger cold front will push through the region Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures and scattered showers. Soil moisture is falling in the area and with the recent heat, stress is starting to mount. As temperatures remain high with lower chances of precipitation going into July, the stress will start mounting for soybeans and cotton.

GOOD CORN HARVEST WEATHER FOR BRAZIL

Periods of showers will continue over southern Brazil through the rest of the week, south of the main corn growing areas. Temperatures are higher as well, favoring vegetative wheat and corn harvest. Another front could bring showers to far southern areas early next week as well.

UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER BLACK SEA

Recent weather conditions have been fair in Ukraine but have been declining in Russia. An upper-level low pressure center in the region is producing scattered showers, and it may continue to bring showers to southern areas of the region into early next week. Warmer temperatures will spread across the region, but especially in the west where temperatures could be hot. As long as soil moisture is favorable, the heat will hasten crop growth. But some areas will dry out, causing stress. The conditions favor maturing wheat and harvest, however.

IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE FOR SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent rainfall in the southwest Canadian Prairies brought welcome soil moisture to the area that really needed it. The region will stay active with another system moving through over the next couple of days and another front moving through with showers early next week. Temperatures will be variable but on the colder side more than warm, making for mixed conditions in the region.

HEATWAVE COMING TO EASTERN EUROPE

Periods of showers will continue in western Europe through the weekend as the atmosphere tries to reverse the hot and dry pattern of the spring. It is difficult to determine if the reversal will be enough for corn and spring grains. Eastern areas are turning much warmer with a heatwave through most of next week. Showers will be limited, but not absent and good soil moisture in the area should be allow spring and summer crops to cope with the heat at least for a little while. The conditions will favor maturing winter grains.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick