DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge across most of the country, a trough in the Northeast, another trough in the Southwest, and one more in western Canada. The southwestern trough will join up with the western Canada trough over the next couple of days, with the complex deepening as it moves through Canada over the weekend. This action will displace the ridge to the Rockies while the trough will gain more influence in the East next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the ridge-west and trough-east will be the dominant upper-air pattern. Another trough will form off the West Coast by next weekend, shifting the ridge closer to the Plains again.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the upper-level pattern, but the GFS is still colder overall. I will use a blend, but favor the warmer European, noting the possibility of changes to temperatures in future forecasts for next week.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be above normal in the West and near to below normal east of the Rockies. Cooler temperatures will largely moderate through the week, though another colder shot should come to northern areas by late next week. A cold front will stall across the South and Southeast early next week, followed by another cold front across the north that is also likely to stall for the rest of the week. Both fronts should bring scattered showers to the areas they pass through, but heavy precipitation is not currently forecast.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...110 AT OCOTILLO WELLS CA

LOW WED...20 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT WEDNESDAY...KANSAS CITY MO 1.43 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across most of the country, a trough in the Northeast, another trough in the Southwest, and one more in western Canada. The southwestern trough will join up with the western Canada trough over the next couple of days, with the complex deepening as it moves through Canada over the weekend. This action will displace the ridge to the Rockies while the trough will gain more influence in the East next week. Another trough will form off the West Coast by next weekend, shifting the ridge closer to the Plains again.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the upper-level pattern, but the GFS is still colder overall. I will use a blend, but favor the warmer European, noting the possibility of changes to temperatures in future forecasts for next week.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be above normal in the West and near to below normal east of the Rockies. Cooler temperatures will largely moderate through the week, though another colder shot should come to northern areas by late next week. A cold front will stall across the South and Southeast early next week, followed by another cold front across the north that is also likely to stall for the rest of the week. Both fronts should bring scattered showers to the areas they pass through, but heavy precipitation is not currently forecast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): The next front moves through late Thursday and Friday, bringing temperatures back down again with more areas of showers. Another front will move through early next week and will stall close to the region with potential for a few more showers. Showers are not consistent across the region, leaving some areas drier, even though showers are moving through every couple of days. There is plenty of soil moisture across most of the region for good plant growth.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Heat continues for the next few days before a stronger front pushes through the region this weekend, making it down to south Texas by early next week. That could bring more showers and lower temperatures through the region for a few days. Any showers or cooler temperatures would be beneficial for growth for corn and soybeans, but have some negative effect on wheat harvest.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A strong cold front will move through this weekend. Another will move into the region early next week and stall. Both will bring lower temperatures and a few rounds of showers. Scattered showers will be hit-or-miss across the region, helping some areas maintain good soil moisture while the recent heat has been taking away topsoil moisture elsewhere.

Some areas are starting to show significant deficits and need a good soaking.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Outside of a spotty shower here or there, heat and dryness continue for the next few days. A stronger cold front will push through the region Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures and scattered showers.

Soil moisture is falling in the area and with the recent heat, stress is starting to mount. As temperatures remain high with lower chances of precipitation going into July, the stress will start mounting for soybeans and cotton.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Heat is starting to develop, which continues through most of next week, hastening crop development where it has been a bit behind.

With good soil moisture in the region, the higher temperatures will be welcome.

The heat could melt snowpack in the mountains a little more effectively, which could cause some flooding.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Periods of showers will continue over southern areas through the rest of the week, south of the main corn growing areas, and temperatures will be much higher as well, favoring wheat and corn harvest.

Another front could bring showers to far southern areas early next week as well.

ARGENTINA (WHEAT): Cold temperatures will stick around for the next week and dryness in the wheat areas continues to be unfavorable. Some showers will be possible on Monday, but most areas will stay dry as soil moisture slowly declines.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall in the southwest has brought welcome soil moisture to the area that really needed it. The region will stay active with another system moving through late this week and another front moving through with showers early next week. Temperatures will be variable but on the colder side more than warm, making for mixed conditions in the region.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers will continue in western areas through the weekend as the atmosphere tries to reverse the hot and dry pattern of the spring, though it is difficult to determine if the reversal will be enough for corn and spring grains. Eastern areas are turning much warmer with a heatwave through most of next week. Showers will be limited, but not absent and good soil moisture in the area should be allow spring and summer crops to cope with the heat. The conditions will favor maturing winter grains.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Recent weather conditions have been fair in Ukraine but have been declining in Russia. An upper-level low pressure center in the region is producing scattered showers, and it may continue to bring showers to southern areas of the region into early next week. Warmer temperatures will spread across the region, but especially in the west where temperatures could be hot. As long as soil moisture is favorable, the heat will hasten crop growth. But some areas will dry out, causing stress. The conditions favor wheat maturing and harvest, however.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Relatively dry and warm conditions are expected into next week. The temperatures are favorable for winter growth on wheat and canola, but more showers would be preferred in northeastern areas that have seen little rainfall over the last couple of weeks. Still, country's growing regions are still on track for an excellent wheat and canola crop this season.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers southeast. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers around Kansas. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday, mostly north. Isolated showers south and west Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers south Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday, mostly south. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.


John Baranick