DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge in the East, a trough in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains, and another trough in the Eastern Pacific. The Canadian trough will continue to move across Canada and the northern U.S. through the week, deepening in the Northeast this weekend. The ridge will strengthen in the middle of the country after the trough passes by late this week and weekend and the Eastern Pacific trough will move to the West Coast this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the trough-ridge-trough pattern will be pretty stable through the end of the month, with the western trough trying to move across the ridge through Canada at times while another one forms off the West Coast in its place.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be below normal across the West and Northeast, and above to well above normal elsewhere. This pattern will continue through next week, though temperatures across the North-Central U.S. will likely cool back down closer to normal next week as the trough moves through. A system will move through Canada next week, bringing a cold front across the northern tier of the U.S. with some shower potential and cooler temperatures.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...110 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW TUE...18 AT AUSTIN NV

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT TUESDAY...TALLAHASSEE FL 1.55 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East, a trough in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains, and another trough in the Eastern Pacific. The Canadian trough will continue to move across Canada and the northern U.S. through the week, deepening in the Northeast this weekend. The ridge will strengthen in the middle of the country after the trough passes by late this week and weekend and the eastern Pacific trough will move to the West Coast this weekend. The trough-ridge-trough pattern will be pretty stable through the end of the month, with the western trough trying to move across the ridge through Canada at times while another one forms off the West Coast in its place.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be below normal across the West and Northeast, and above to well above normal elsewhere. This pattern will continue through next week, though temperatures across the north-central U.S. will likely cool back down closer to normal next week as the trough moves through. A system will move through Canada next week, bringing a cold front across the northern tier of the U.S. with some shower potential and cooler temperatures.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the region over the last several days with some areas of moderate to heavy rain. The system causing the rains will slowly move through Canada and may bring down some occasional showers as well as strong winds that could cause damage Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will rise well above normal afterward going into the weekend. The combination of heat and good soil moisture will favor crop growth. Another system will move through over the weekend into early next week with more scattered showers and some cooler temperatures.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers went through Nebraska on Monday with a string of severe storms. A front will sit across northern areas over the next couple of days with some shower activity, but heat will build back northward late this week and weekend.

Showers will be very isolated or non-existent elsewhere, with drought likely starting to increase again for those dry areas. Heat and a lack of showers continues across southern areas through the rest of June, though Nebraska is more likely to see fronts bring some showers through.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through on Monday with clusters of severe storms with strong winds. Heat has built up across the region but a cold front is starting to move through that will bring temperatures down to or slightly below normal for a couple of days. The front will also have scattered showers and potential for severe storms as well. Heat will build back in over the weekend and next week ahead of the next front, a pattern we will likely see through the end of the month. The combination of occasional brief heat and ample moisture should allow for good crop growth on the whole.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Outside of a spotty shower here or there, heat and dryness will be the theme of the next week. Areas with ample soil moisture will see good growth, but areas across the south that are drier could see more stress. Eventually, the heat and dryness will likely stress a lot of the region by the end of the month.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Widespread moderate rain moved through over the weekend and early this week. A trough that will move back into the West this weekend will bring more showers and cooler temperatures. Recent rainfall and soil moisture are mostly excellent across the region, favoring wheat, though development has been slower due to cooler temperatures.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Frosts developed over southern states over the weekend, which may have had a small damaging affect on immature corn. Another system will move through late this week and weekend with more showers for southern states. This will keep soil moisture favorable for winter wheat, but corn headed toward maturity could use drier conditions for drying and harvest.

Colder temperatures again will fill in this weekend and could produce more frosts. The cold is not favorable for winter wheat growth.

ARGENTINA (WHEAT): Dry and cold weather is expected to continue for the next week across the southern wheat areas, which are in need of more rainfall through the winter months. A system moving through this week will skip over the wheat areas with the showers, bringing them more to northern areas instead.

Cold temperatures will limit planting and establishment.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CANOLA): Widespread moderate to heavy rain developed on Monday and continues through Thursday as a system slowly moves through the region. The system will also come with some strong winds that could cause damage to young crops. Another system will move through this weekend and early next week with more scattered showers. The showers will be good for those drier areas in the southwest as long as flooding does not occur, while eastern areas still need some drier conditions to finish planting. More of this area could go unplanted due to the wetness.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Heat and dryness building across the west and south is unfavorable for crop growth, but good for maturing wheat. The hot and dry conditions continue until the weekend, when a system should bring more organized showers through this region. To the east, conditions have been much more favorable with good moisture and less stressful temperatures. It will be drier and temperatures will increase this weekend, but this half of the continent is still in good shape, especially with regards to winter grains.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers continue over Ukraine for the next few days with only some patchy showers in Russia. Temperatures remain mild to warm, favoring crop growth for areas with adequate moisture. Some areas of Russia are a bit drier and will see stress instead. Overall, the region is still in good shape, but could use more showers for summer crops.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system that moved through western areas with beneficial showers over the weekend is moving through eastern areas with a few showers and warmer temperatures. Another system will move through the west Friday through the weekend, and eventually through the southeast early next week with a few showers. Showers have not been as frequent in the northeastern wheat belt, but soil moisture remains good for now. The country's growing regions are still on track for an excellent wheat and canola crop this season.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers east. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers north Monday-Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Friday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers north Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday-Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal south and above normal north Saturday-Sunday.

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